Daily economy news from the American Institute for Economic Research: data, stories, research, and articles touching on economics, politics, culture, education, policy, opinion, technology, markets, healthcare, regulation, trends, and much more.
Prices Stable in May: Time to Cut Rates?
“M2, the most commonly cited measure of the money supply, is up 0.53 percent from a year ago. Since real income and population are growing faster than this, current M2 growth also suggests money is tight. But this is speculative.” ~Alexander W. Salter
AIER’s Everyday Price Index Unchanged in May 2024
“The recent data, combined with the deceleration in core CPI in April, suggests the resumption of disinflation. But policymakers have indicated a need for several months of reduced price pressures before considering interest rate cuts.” ~Peter C. Earle
The Super Market
“Something that you can purchase with income you’ve earned with just a few minutes of your work-time is something that includes the work-effort of thousands or millions of strangers.” ~Donald J. Boudreaux
Protectionists Are Wrong: Free Trade is the Path to Prosperity
“Consumers and producers in America are better off with more domestic and international trade. As we don’t want to produce everything we consume daily, trading with others is the most efficient way to meet our needs.” ~Vance Ginn
Government Failure in One Lesson
“Perhaps the easiest way to explain government failure in one lesson is to remember that there is no such thing as ‘the state.’ Instead, essential decisions about resource use will be made by political actors.” ~Michael Munger
AI Eases Its Own Labor-Market Transitions
“Not long ago, search engines like Google were not understood by the masses, which forced people through experience to learn how to ‘Google’ webpages in the proper way. Submitting a search query is similarly a new language to learn, just like prompting a language model.” ~Samuel Crombie and Jack Nicastro
Trade Deficits: Accounting Masquerading as Economics
“Reducing ‘imports’ would not, in fact, increase GDP at all. At best, doing so would leave GDP unchanged since we would be adding less to consumption, investment, and government spending while subtracting equally less from imports.” ~David Hebert
Politicizing Monetary Policy Won’t Fix the Fed’s Failings
“Even if one thinks Trump is well-suited to make interest rate decisions (and there is little reason to think he is), it does not follow that Trump’s proposed solution would improve monetary policy.” ~Nicolás Cachanosky
The Dollar and its Domestic Enemies
“The greatest threat to the soundness and utility of the US dollar comes not from shadowy figures in faraway lands, but from unremarkable apparatchiks carrying out the edicts of US officialdom.” ~Peter C. Earle
No, Biden’s Protectionism Isn’t “All About National Defense”
“Evidence from America’s past… lends no support to those who insist that, absent higher tariffs and subsidies, America will probably be unable to maintain the industrial might she needs to defend herself militarily.” ~Donald J. Boudreaux
Governments Shouldn’t Be In the Lending Business
“When government officials approve and guarantee loans, lenders don’t have to worry about taking the loss. They can be very generous, pursuing what they regard as socially beneficial goals, and never worrying about the losses the taxpayers will have to bear.” ~ George Leef
Defense Manual for The War on Prices
“The book advocates for a substantial policy shift toward minimal governmental interference, allowing market mechanisms to function unimpeded. Sadly, we are moving in the opposite direction.” ~Vance Ginn
Confounding the Case for Oil and Gas Collusion
“Oil is produced and sold in a global market. Even true cartels like OPEC don’t have total control over prices. It comes down to supply and demand.” ~Alexander W. Salter
Our Kids Have No Economic Immune Systems
“Kids are told they can do anything, that they are personally mighty and important. But they never have the experience of everyday effort and failure.” ~Michael Munger
Governments, Not Markets, Impel ESG
“Prominent financial institutions have backpedaled on ESG, with net outflows from ESG funds. This divestment suggests that financial institutions may have overestimated market demand for ESG.” ~Daniel Sutter and Allen Mendenhall
The Sixties’ Toxic Legacy
“Woke-friendly corporations, billionaires, foundations, and individuals with impressive foreign ties are demonstrating the effectiveness of funding campus radicals…echoing similar anti-Western, violent hate-marches throughout Europe and elsewhere.” ~Juliana Geran Pilon
Dollar Dominance, Dollar Dependence
“Skeptics to the global monetary hegemon have long called for its demise — on causes of design or ideology, theory or empirics. And for decades, they have been proven wrong.” ~Joakim Book
Biden’s Latest Student-Loan Bailout
“What the Secretary purports to exercise in the proposed rule is no ‘discretionary’ authority appropriate to the executive branch; it is full-blown legislative authority, treading into the appropriations domain constitutionally reserved to Congress.” ~Jack Fitzhenry and GianCarlo Canaparo
June U-3 Jobless Rate Triggers Sahm Rule: Recession Ahead?
“This uptick triggers the Sahm Rule, a real-time recession indicator, suggesting that the US economy is in, or is nearing, a recession.” ~Peter C. Earle
ESG: A Gordian Knot of the Highest Order
“Thanks to a complex web of CSR initiatives, aid and development programs, progressive intergovernmental agencies, and the do-good posturing of political elites, businesses will further be ensnarled to ESG.” ~Kimberlee Josephson
Lessons from the European Legislative Elections
“The prospects for market liberalization in the EU aren’t good. We can expect more business as usual, if with some important marginal cuts (notably on the EU’s aggressive and expensive environmental agenda).” ~Nikolai Wenzel
We Still Bear Eisenhower’s Cross of Iron
“We have seen the rise of the military-industrial complex, the creation of the national security state, and a bloated military that is second to none, but with a price tag to match.” ~Andrew Byers
Freedom and a Funeral for Chevron Deference
“Overturning Chevron should encourage lower courts to police agency assertions of power more closely, but it will not constrain the administrative state so long as Congress persists in enacting broad, poorly written statutes.” ~Jonathan H. Adler
A Former Prime Minister Reveals Why the UK’s Blob Must be Destroyed
“The American edition of her memoir is a warning Liz Truss extends to Americans — don’t let the administrative state get out of control and do your level best to reduce the powers it already has.” ~Iain Murray
But Also What If?
“The arrogance of those who wish to unleash the dogs of antitrust on CurrentlyDominant, Inc. prevents them from asking important follow-up questions.” ~Donald J Boudreaux
Who Loves Minimum Wage Laws? Kiosk Makers
“Minimum wages and workplace regulations protect some people, alright, but not the workers. Instead, these rules protect anyone who provides a substitute for the labor that workers bring to the table.” ~Art Carden
To End Poverty, Admire the Rich
“If you care about poverty, then you should encourage positive views about high levels of wealth. A country with people who think positively about the wealthy is more likely to implement market reforms which will make it easier for people to generate wealth.” ~James Hartley
ULTRAs: The Worst Idea You’ve Never Heard Of
“Instead of taking two percent (say) of the liquidated value of the wealth, the state would simply take ownership of the wealth, in place… In a relatively short time, the government literally takes substantial ownership of all successful private businesses.” ~Michael Munger
The Real Reason Fast Food Is So Expensive
“The bottom line is that fast food prices are high because demand for fast food remains high, despite those higher prices.” ~Jon Miltimore
Prices Decline in May, Monetary Policy Tightens
“Prices today are 8.9 percentage points higher than they would have been had the Fed hit its 2-percent inflation target since January 2020.”
Trump, Tariffs, and Income Taxes
“Perhaps Trump’s goal is simply to eliminate the federal income tax. If so, then he should advocate for doing that and only that. Eliminating the income tax would, in fact, make Americans richer in after-tax dollars.” ~David Hebert
The Free-Market Tories Britain Needed
“Raising economic growth prospects through policy is difficult. But Britain is now so far behind the United States and the technological frontier, that removing self-imposed barriers to growth could have delivered a meaningful boost to the country’s GDP level.” ~Ryan Bourne
Investors Make Houses More Affordable, Not Less
“Blaming high housing prices on private equity because they ‘bought up all the available homes’ is like blaming high food prices on grocery stores because they bought up all the available food.”
CBDC Ban Does Little to Bolster Financial Privacy
“The battle for safeguarding individual rights over financial information and freedom from undue government control must encompass all forms of financial transactions, whether digital or physical.” ~Nicolás Cachanosky
Policy Uncertainty Drives Economic Volatility
“Regulations often have significant compliance costs and operational challenges. The regulatory burden can stifle innovation and deter investment, particularly in industries struggling with economic headwinds.” ~Vance Ginn
Arguments Against Markets
“Those of us who want to keep government small and strictly limited — and, hence, who want individuals to make whatever peaceful choices they wish — are far outnumbered by individuals who distrust markets to deliver enough of the goods to enough of the people.” ~Donald J. Boudreaux