Alexander W. Salter

  • Why Haven’t We Whipped Inflation Yet?

    “The best we can do is recalibrate models when we get new data. But that’s like driving the car while looking out the rearview window…hardly ideal for knowing how to adjust your steering.” ~Alexander W. Salter

    Why Haven’t We Whipped Inflation Yet?
  • The Fed and Political Independence: It’s Complicated

    “We should focus less on who’s allowed to run the Fed and more on what the Fed’s allowed to do in the first place.” ~Alexander W. Salter

    The Fed and Political Independence: It’s Complicated
  • Inflation Remains Elevated. Is Money Actually Tight?

    ” Fed watchers expect the Federal Open Market Committee will keep rates steady when they meet on March 19-20. In light of the CPI data, that’s a defensible move.” ~Alexander W. Salter

    Inflation Remains Elevated. Is Money Actually Tight?
  • Faster Growth and Interest Rates: Even Harder than You Think

    “Higher rates could be a sign of loose money, not tight, depending on how far from the policy change we’re looking and how fast the market adapts.” ~ Alexander W. Salter

    Faster Growth and Interest Rates: Even Harder than You Think
  • Congress Overspends, but the Fed Inflates

    “At most, large deficits impelled the Fed to support the market for government debt by purchasing more debt than it should have. The central bank, not the fiscal authorities, is the residual determiner of aggregate demand.” ~Alexander W. Salter

    Congress Overspends, but the Fed Inflates
  • Two Kinds of Transitory Inflation

    “Team Transitory’s narrative just doesn’t cohere. Whether we’re trying to explain the Great Inflation of the 1970s and early 1980s, or the inflation of the past two years, we need to rely on demand-side mechanisms.” ~Alexander W. Salter

    Two Kinds of Transitory Inflation
  • An Inflation Resurgence, or Just Relative Price Changes?

    “Microeconomic relative-price dynamics increasingly drive inflation measurements. That means the Fed should not be afraid to ease off the brakes.” ~Alexander W. Salter

    An Inflation Resurgence, or Just Relative Price Changes?
  • Time to Tame the “Apolitical” Fed?

    “The Fed’s self-conception as an apolitical technocracy blinds it to the degree to which it has weighed in on fundamental political issues, which instead ought to be deliberated in Congress.” ~Alexander W. Salter

    Time to Tame the “Apolitical” Fed?
  • Time for the Fed to Ease Up

    “Even if Fed economists have underestimated the natural rate of interest by half, monetary policy looks slightly tight. It looks very tight if the natural-rate figures are anywhere close to correct.” ~Alexander W. Salter

    Time for the Fed to Ease Up
  • Happy New Year! Have Some Inflation

    “After a rough couple of rounds, inflation has come out swinging. It doesn’t have the legs for a knockout punch, but it remains a troublesome opponent.” ~Alexander W. Salter

    Happy New Year! Have Some Inflation