"Risks remain and the prospects for the global economy after lockdown remain uncertain. Honest valuation remains difficult when markets are so hampered. The next decade is likely to favour the tactical investor." ~ Colin Lloyd
Colin Lloyd
Colin is a macroeconomic commentator, writer and presenter, based in London, England. He has worked for asset managers in commodities, money markets, capital markets, equities and foreign exchange since the early 1980’s and writes In the Long Run. He is a contributor to several free-market publications including The Cobden Centre and was a 2017 runner-up for the 2017 Richard Koch Breakthrough Prize awarded by The Institute of Economic Affairs.
Articles
"During the intervening five years, much has happened to support the case for digital assets. More legitimacy will be needed to satisfy the institutional investment community, but it is reasonable to conclude that digital assets have finally come of age." ~ Colin Lloyd
"The recovery we are witnessing today is built on the crumbling foundations of the serial malinvestments which resulted from previous attempts to avoid the recessionary pain caused by the GFC. If structural inflation can be engendered, an escape from the worst ravages of overindebtedness may be nigh, but, until markets clear and zombies die, what economic growth there is will remain suboptimal." ~ Colin Lloyd
"The Everything Bubble is a grand illusion, money is growing more plentiful, credit more available. Asset prices are not really rising; it is the value of money which is being systematically undermined. I wonder whether the motto for this pandemic will be carpe diem, quam minimum credula pecunia – seize the day, place no trust in money?" ~ Colin Lloyd
"If bond yields cannot rise, the stock market will remain supported unless stagflation sets in. Should that transpire, the Fed will need to decide whether to ignore inflation and increase monetary stimulus, including the purchase of ETFs and common stock, in order to maintain full employment, or ‘hold’ and witness a politically unpalatable clearing of both the stock and bond market." ~ Colin Lloyd
"With unemployment rates still elevated and much of the global economy in some form of lockdown, it is hard to imagine the conditions for an economic boom, especially one that will see wage increases, but the size and scale of the global monetary and fiscal response to the pandemic is unprecedented. It creates the conditions for a continued appreciation of a wide range of essential commodity prices as the pandemic ends and demand rebounds." ~ Colin Lloyd
"The current pandemic has yet to run its course, and the social and economic impact will take much longer to work its way through. Productivity growth, in the medium term, is liable to disappoint, but deferred creative disruption – a deferral which artificially low interest rates have allowed to persist since 2008, if not earlier – could set the stage for an era of dramatic productivity growth in the decades ahead." ~ Colin Lloyd
"Is this the end for the US Dollar as the world’s reserve currency? As Churchill might have said, '…This is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end, but it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.’" ~ Colin Lloyd
"At 78 years old it is generally expected that Joe Biden will be a one-term president, and this presents him with a golden opportunity to embrace reform in many areas of policy. He has been afforded the chance to leave a lasting legacy: an overhaul of the WTO is one such reform." ~ Colin Lloyd
"In a fiat currency world the limits of central bank balance sheet expansion remain unclear, but, as the world economy recovers from the largest economic shock in generations, those limits will become clear. For the large, DM, central banks, these EM limits will be noted with care. Japan has been the petri dish of global monetary policy for the last two decades; now it is the turn of EM central banks to test the willing suspension of disbelief of global financial markets." ~ Colin Lloyd
