Marius Gustavson
Articles
The Euro – a Greek Drachma in Disguise
The Euro keeps tumbling as international investors are loosing faith in the Eurozone. The currency has so far fallen 14 percent against the dollar this year. There is fear that contagion could trigger “Greek” debt crises among other EU countries with weakening fiscal positions, and that European banks could realize substantial losses as a result.…
The Return of British Stagflation?
The UK inflation rate jumped to 3.7 percent last month, way above the Bank of England’s 2 percent target. This comes as a surprise to both the monetary policymakers of the BoE and to the newly formed coalition government. The Bank’s Governor Mervyn King explains this sudden rise in consumer prices in a letter to…
Nouriel Roubini – Return to the Abyss
“If fiscal imbalances are not addressed through spending cuts and revenue increases, only two options remain: inflation for countries that borrow in their own currency and can monetize their deficits; or default for countries that borrow in a foreign currency or can’t print their own. Thus, the recent events in Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Italy, and…
Stephen Roach Calls for a New Monetary Policy Regime
Stephen Roach, Chief Economist of Morgan Stanley, have been a critic of the Fed for many years. In a Financial Times op-ed he makes the case for exiting the current monetary policy regime once and for all: “it is high time to banish the moral hazard of macro policy – the false sense of security…
Fed Monetary Dissident Thomas Hoenig
Thomas Hoenig, a voting member of the Fed’s interest rate decision body, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), has on several occasions expressed concerns about the direction of U.S. monetary policy. During the last year, he has been a lone voice of dissent at FOMC meetings. This weekend’s Wall Street Journal features an interview with…
Europe’s Freezing Money Markets
“Money markets are showing rising levels of mistrust between Europe’s banks on concern an almost $1 trillion bailout package won’t prevent a sovereign debt default that might trigger a breakup of the euro.” “The cost to hedge against losses on European bank bonds is 63 percent higher than a month ago. Investment-grade corporate debt sales…
Roche – Not the way to solve the debt crisis
“the world is facing a major sovereign debt crisis that will squeeze economic growth and possibly deliver a series of debt default events down the road. Sovereign debt issuance is now sucking up 25 per cent of available world savings and that will squeeze the ability of the private sector to invest in productive opportunities.”…
Carmen Reinhart on Debt Crises
University of Maryland economist Carmen Reinhart recently published a book with co-researcher Kennet Rogoff presenting several hundred years of data on financial crises. The title This Time Is Different alludes to the mentality that often develops during unsustainable booms–namely the belief that the old rules of valution does not apply anymore because of some technological…
The Euro-Crisis: Fear Is Back in Play
“Now, fear is back in play,” said William H. Gross, managing director of Pimco, as the European crisis is sending shock waves into financial markets around the world. There is fear that the sovereign debt crisis could freeze up the euro-zone interbank market, in a replay of the credit crunch of 2007-2008. Several major European…
Europe’s Political and Economic Crisis
Some interesting news items this week on the European crisis: A “wild week” (Financial Times) “Fears of eurozone sovereign risk contagion to banks, tighter monetary policy in China and surprise intraday selling by electronic trading systems united to deliver the worst week for global equities since the height of the financial crisis.” “For investors, the…