Rachel Shabani
Articles
March Business Conditions Monthly
AIER’s Business Cycle Conditions Leading Indicators index held steady at 42 in February while the Roughly Coincident Indicators index and the Lagging Indicators index were also unchanged, at 92 and 75, respectively (see chart). Despite having the Leading Indicators index below 50 for a second consecutive month, the outlook remains moderately positive, though with a…
Clothes and Gas Boost Everyday Prices in February
AIER’s Everyday Price Index rose 0.4 percent in February after posting four consecutive declines between October 2018 and January 2019. The Everyday Price Index measures price changes people see in everyday purchases such as groceries, restaurant meals, gasoline, and utilities. It excludes prices of infrequently purchased, big-ticket items (such as cars, appliances, and furniture) and…
February Business Conditions Monthly
AIER’s Business Cycle Conditions Leading Indicators index fell 16 points to 42 in January. The result was the first reading below 50 since August 2016. The Roughly Coincident Indicators index fell to 92 while the Lagging Indicators index dropped to 75 (see chart). The string of four declines pushing the Leading Indicators index below 50…
Motor-Fuel Prices Drag Everyday Price Index Down in January
AIER’s Everyday Price Index fell 0.3 percent in January after dropping 0.9 percent in December. January marks the fourth consecutive decrease in the Everyday Price Index and the fifth drop in the last seven months. The EPI measures price changes people see in everyday purchases such as groceries, restaurant meals, gasoline, and utilities. It excludes…
January Business Conditions Monthly
AIER’s Business Cycle Conditions Leading Indicators index fell 21 points to 58 in December. The Roughly Coincident Indicators index held at 100 while the Lagging Indicators index gained 16 points to reach 83 (see chart). The sharp decline in the Leading Indicators index is a cautionary sign but index is still above 50, providing some…
Everyday Prices Plunge Again in December
AIER’s Everyday Price Index plunged 0.9 percent in December after dropping 1.0 percent in November. Over the past six months, the EPI has fallen four times at an overall annualized pace of −4.1 percent. The EPI measures price changes people see in everyday purchases such as groceries, restaurant meals, gasoline, and utilities. It excludes prices…
December Business Conditions Monthly
AIER’s Business Cycle Conditions Leading Indicators index pulled back in November, dropping to 79 following an 83 in October and 88 in September. The Roughly Coincident Indicators index increased, moving back to 100, while the Lagging Indicators index tumbled 16 points to 67 from an 83 in October (see chart). The mixed results from the…
Everyday Prices Plunge In November
AIER’s Everyday Price Index plunged 1.0 percent in November after falling 0.1 percent in October. Over the past five months, the EPI has fallen three times for an annualized pace of −2.7 percent. The EPI measures price changes people see in everyday purchases such as groceries, restaurant meals, gasoline, and utilities. It excludes prices of…
Everyday Prices Fall for the Second Time in Four Months
AIER’s Everyday Price Index fell 0.1 percent in October after being unchanged in September. Over the past four months, the EPI has fallen 0.1 percent in two (October and July) and been unchanged in two (August and September). The EPI measures price changes people see in everyday purchases such as groceries, restaurant meals, gasoline, and…
October Business Conditions Monthly
AIER’s Business Cycle Conditions Leading Indicators index improved in September, hitting 88 following 83 in August. The Roughly Coincident Indicators index held at a perfect 100 reading while the Lagging Indicators index also held steady, posting an 83 (see chart below). The AIER business cycle indicators suggest broad-based economic expansion and support a positive outlook…
