Robert Hughes

What Could Push the Economy to the Tipping Point

Although the economy and the stock market are very different entities, they can and do intersect. Their health rely on some of the same fundamentals. Short-term stock market fluctuations, including the recent double-digit percentage plunge, are difficult to fully explain and even more difficult to predict. However, over time, equity markets tend to be driven by fundamentals – sales, margins, and earnings. 

A Strong Employment Report

A strong December payroll gain plus upward revisions to November and October suggest the economy is entering 2016 with good momentum.

Updating How We Predict Recessions

This institute has long been known for its work in identifying turning points in the economy, including predicting recessions. And we have a pretty good track record in that regard since we started studying business cycles in 1953. But such work requires vigilance, and changing with the times as necessary.

Retail Sales Strengthen at Holiday Time

Today’s retail sales report from the Commerce Department contained more good signs for the holiday shopping season, as consumers focus on small-ticket items.

Jobs: What One Good Report Means

A blowout October Employment Report suggests the economy has regained momentum just in time for the holiday shopping season. Strong numbers across the board in the report sharply raises the likelihood of a Fed rate increase in December. However, one report does not necessarily mean the economy has moved to a significantly stronger growth trend. Growth is still likely to be moderate by historical standards, implying occasional periods of mixed economic reports may occur at times. These periods of mixed data will likely prompt the Fed to remain cautious during the process of policy normalization, implementing future rate hikes only at a very gradual pace.

Mixed Reports May Give Fed (More) Pause

The broadly disappointing September Employment Report continues the recent trend of mixed economic reports but overall suggests the economy continues to grow at a slow to moderate pace.

Data-Dependent Fed Watching Jobs and Autos

The Fed will no doubt be looking carefully at data for August, including the upcoming Employment Situation report, for signs that recent turmoil in the global economy and capital markets may be affecting U.S. consumer or business behavior. Judging by strong auto sales and the continued low level of layoffs, it would appear that the U.S. is weathering the late summer storm reasonably well.