Robert Hughes

Consumer Sentiment Plunged to a Record Low in June

“Consumer sentiment plunged to a record low in June and is consistent with prior recessions. Inflation is a driver of weakening consumer attitudes and contributing to elevated risks. The outlook is highly uncertain.” ~ Robert Hughes

Average Weekly Initial Claims Continue to Drift Higher

“Weekly initial claims fell but the four-week average continues on a modest upward trend. The Russian invasion of Ukraine, sustained elevated price increases, and an intensifying Fed tightening cycle remain risks to the outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

Home Construction Falls Again in May

“Housing starts and permits fell in May. Surging mortgage rates, record home prices, and falling consumer attitudes are major headwinds for demand. The outlook for housing is deteriorating rapidly.” ~ Robert Hughes

AIER Leading Indicators Index Returns to Neutral in May

“AIER’s Leading Indicators Index returned to a neutral 50 reading in May. Persistent upward pressure on prices, labor shortages and turnover, fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine, periodic lockdowns in China, and an intensifying Fed tightening cycle remain significant risks to the economy. Caution is warranted.” ~ Robert Hughes

Retail Sales Decline in May

“Nominal and real retail sales fell in May but remain above trend. However, threats to the economy are intensifying. Caution is warranted.” ~ Robert Hughes