Robert Hughes

“Industrial output rose again in April, the fourth solid gain in a row. However, shortages continue, sustaining upward pressure on prices. Combined with the Russian invasion of Ukraine, renewed lockdowns in China, and a new Fed tightening cycle, the risks to the economy remain significant.” ~ Robert Hughes

“Retail sales rose in April and revised data suggest a stronger trend recently. However, significant threats to the economy remain. Caution is warranted.” ~ Robert Hughes

“Consumer sentiment sank in early May and is consistent with prior recessions. Inflation is a driver of weakening consumer attitudes and contributing to elevated risks. The outlook is highly uncertain.” ~ Robert Hughes

“Weekly initial claims have trended slightly higher recently but continue to suggest a very tight labor market. The Russian invasion of Ukraine, renewed lockdowns in China, sustained elevated price increases, and a new Fed tightening cycle remain risks to the outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

“AIER’s Leading Indicators Index fell eight points to a below-neutral 46 in April. Rising prices, a new Fed tightening cycle, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and new lockdowns in China are risks to the economic outlook. Caution is warranted.” ~ Robert Hughes

“AIER’s Everyday Price Index rose again in April led by food prices. Sustained price pressures, a new Fed tightening cycle, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and lockdowns in China are threats to the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

“Payroll gains remained strong in April, providing support for growth. However, sustained price pressures, a new Fed tightening cycle, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and renewed lockdowns in China are significant risks for the economy.” ~ Robert Hughes

“Weekly initial claims rose to the highest level since February but continue to suggest a very tight labor market. However, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, renewed lockdowns in China, sustained elevated price increases, and a new Fed tightening cycle remain risks to the outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

“Light-vehicle sales rose in April but remain well below pre-pandemic ranges. Assemblies rose in March, but component shortages continue to restrain production. Inventory and prices show signs of stabilization recently, though at extreme levels.” ~ Robert Hughes

“Services-sector expansion continued in April, but labor and materials shortages are sustaining price pressures. The Russian invasion of Ukraine, lockdowns in China, and Fed tightening are threats to the economy.” ~ Robert Hughes