Robert Hughes

Strong Gain in Industrial Output in March

“Industrial output rose again in March. However, a range of economic and geopolitical issues continue to restrain the ability of manufacturers to meet the significantly higher demand that has emerged following the lockdown recession.” ~ Robert Hughes

Real Retail Sales Are Trending Flat

“Retail sales rose in March but fell after adjusting for price changes. Ongoing labor and materials shortages, turmoil from the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and a new Fed tightening cycle all raise risks for the outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

Weekly Initial Claims Tick Up but Remain Near Record Lows

“Weekly initial claims ticked up but remain near a multidecade low, indicating a very tight labor market. The Russian invasion of Ukraine, sustained elevated price increases, and a new Fed tightening cycle have boosted risks to the outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

AIER’s Everyday Price Index Surges 3.0 Percent in March

“AIER’s Everyday Price Index surged in March as upward price pressures continue. Global economic turmoil surrounding the Russian invasion of Ukraine and a new Fed tightening cycle are boosting uncertainty for the economy.” ~ Robert Hughes

AIER Leading Indicators Index Improves Slightly, Remains Near Neutral

“AIER’s Leading Indicators Index partially rebounded in March, posting an 8-point rise following a 17-point drop in February. Rapidly rising prices, a new Fed tightening cycle, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine are boosting uncertainty. Expect continued volatility for the AIER business cycle indicators over coming months. Caution is warranted.” ~ Robert Hughes

Services-Sector Shows Improvement in March

“Services-sector expansion broadened in March as labor shortages eased slightly but materials shortages and price pressures continue. The Russian invasion of Ukraine is a new source of price pressure and disruption to the global economy.” ~ Robert Hughes

Auto Industry Struggles Continued in March

“Light-vehicle sales fell again in March. Assemblies remain weak as component shortages continue to restrain production, but inventory and prices show signs of stabilization recently, though at extreme levels. Global supply chains remain disrupted with the Russian invasion of Ukraine adding to global turmoil.” ~ Robert Hughes

Private Payrolls Add 426,000 Jobs in March

“Payroll gains remained strong in March, providing support for growth. However, sustained price pressures, a new Fed tightening cycle, and turmoil surrounding the Russian invasion of Ukraine are significant risks for the economy.” ~ Robert Hughes