Robert Hughes

AIER Leading Indicators Index Shows Improvement, Suggests Continued Expansion

“AIER’s Leading Indicators Index rose to 63 in January with all three business cycle indicators above neutral for the first time since December 2019. The results suggest continued economic expansion with the potential for a broadening of growth in the economy. However, risks remain elevated as upward price pressures continue and Fed policymakers likely start a tightening cycle in March, raising the risk of a policy mistake.” ~ Robert Hughes

Groceries and Utilities Push AIER’s Everyday Price Index Up in January

“AIER’s Everyday Price Index rose again in January, driven by increases in the prices for groceries and household utilities. Constraints on production are likely to ease somewhat as new Covid cases decline. However, labor shortages may sustain upward pressure on prices for some time.” ~ Robert Hughes

Private Payrolls Show Surprising Strength in January, Adding 444,000 Jobs

“Payrolls growth was unexpectedly strong in January and revisions show more robust gains over the past year. The results support a positive outlook for growth and an eventual slowing of price increases, but upward price pressures may continue a while longer until production and logistical constraints are significantly reduced.” ~ Robert Hughes

Services-Sector Growth May Have Slowed Again in January

“The services sector expanded in January, but Covid continues to impact operations. Shortages of labor and materials continue to restrain output and sustain upward pressure on prices, though cresting new cases of Covid may provide a small amount of relief.” ~ Robert Hughes

Consumer Sentiment Begins 2022 with a Drop

“Consumer sentiment weakened again in January as consumers reacted to Covid and high prices. Some easing of supply-chain issues, policy actions by the Fed, and consumer spending decisions will all contribute to the future pace of economic activity and price pressures.” ~ Robert Hughes