Robert Hughes

“AIER’s Leading Indicators Index posted a sharp decline in August, falling to 58. Five consecutive pullbacks suggest that breadth of growth is likely to narrow in the future. Furthermore, resurging Covid is impacting consumers and threatening the outlook. Caution is warranted.” – Robert Hughes

“Weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits fell to a new pandemic low. A tight labor market and a record number of open jobs should help drive initial claims lower, but waves of new Covid cases will continue to disrupt economic activity.” – Robert Hughes

“Job openings hit another record high in July but the weaker-than-expected August jobs report and surging new Covid cases are clouding the economic outlook.” – Robert Hughes

“Payrolls posted a disappointing gain in August as new Covid cases surge. The outlook is for continued recovery but the threats and headwinds to growth have increased substantially.” – Robert Hughes

“Light-vehicle sales fell for a fourth consecutive month in August, falling farther below the recent typical range. Component shortages continue to disrupt production causing inventories to plunge and prices to surge.” – Robert Hughes

“Weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits fell for the fifth time in the last six weeks, hitting the lowest level of the pandemic though continuing claims ticked up. A tight labor market and a record number of open jobs should help drive initial claims lower, but rising Covid cases remain a threat to the outlook.” – Robert Hughes

“Demand for manufactured goods remained very strong in August. However, labor, production, and logistical issues – many of which are worsening with the surge in new Covid cases – continue to restrain supply and pressure prices.” – Robert Hughes

“Consumer attitudes are becoming less optimistic as Covid cases rise. The waning optimism could impact spending and adds to the growing list of risks to the economic outlook” – Robert Hughes

“New-home sales rose in July while supply conditions eased a bit further. Rising prices, somewhat higher mortgage rates, and resurgent Covid cases are likely to sustain continued crosswinds and increased uncertainty for the housing market.” – Robert Hughes

“Existing-home sales and inventories rose slightly in July as high prices and shifting housing preferences weigh on the recent pace of activity.” – Robert Hughes