Robert Hughes

“Weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits jumped in the latest week and may suggest a temporary plateau. A tight labor market and a record number of open jobs should continue to drive initial claims lower, but the Delta variant is increasing uncertainty.” – Robert Hughes

“Home construction activity showed further signs of cooling in June. The combination of a reopening economy that may be reversing pandemic-related housing preferences and rising single-family home prices appear to be dampening demand while labor difficulties restrain supply.” – Robert Hughes

“Retail sales rose in June with broad gains among the categories. Solid consumer fundamentals suggest a positive economic outlook, though upward pressure on prices is a growing risk for consumer sentiment and consumer spending.” – Robert Hughes

“Industrial output rose in June but the details among industries and market segments were mixed. However, substantial excess capacity still exists. While reopening the economy is boosting demand, supply constraints are pressuring prices. However, a runaway inflationary spiral remains unlikely.” – Robert Hughes

“Weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits fell in the latest week but the trends have slowed, and the levels remain elevated. A tight labor market and a record number of open jobs should continue to drive initial claims lower.” – Robert Hughes

“AIER’s Leading Indicators Index remained solidly above neutral in June, suggesting continued economic growth. However, labor issues, materials shortages, and logistical problems are restraining the recovery in output and putting upward pressure on prices. While the outlook remains positive, the emergence of the Delta variant increases uncertainty.” – Robert Hughes

“AIER’s Everyday Price Index posted a seventh straight monthly increase, reflecting a wide range of lingering fallout from government lockdowns. As these issues are worked out, price pressures are likely to ease.” – Robert Hughes

“Consumer credit jumped in May as easing government restrictions boosted economic activity.” – Robert Hughes

“The declining trend in weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits may pause briefly, but a tight labor market and a record number of open jobs should continue to drive initial claims lower.” – Robert Hughes

“Job openings hit another record high in May as businesses struggle to attract qualified workers in a tight labor market.” – Robert Hughes