Robert Hughes

“Retail spending was strong in October, but the recent inflation-adjusted trend remains weak. Threats to the economy remain significant, and risks remain elevated. Caution is warranted.” ~ Robert Hughes

The AIER Leading Indicators Index remained well below neutral in the latest month, signaling broadening economic weakness and sharply elevated levels of risk for the outlook. Caution is warranted.

“Consumer sentiment fell in early November and remains at recessionary levels. Inflation expectations ticked up, but long-run expectations remain well anchored.” ~ Robert Hughes

“Weekly initial claims rose, but the low level suggests the labor market remains tight. Rapid price increases and aggressive Fed tightening remain major risks for the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

“AIER’s Everyday Price Index rose 0.7 in October, driven by gasoline and food prices. An aggressive Fed tightening cycle, consumer pessimism, and fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine remain threats to the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

“Payrolls posted gains in October, but the pace appears to be slowing. Mixed signs for the labor market, sustained price pressures, and an aggressive Fed tightening cycle remain risks to the outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

“Services-sector expansion slowed in October, but price pressures ticked up. The outlook remains highly uncertain.” ~ Robert Hughes

“Weekly initial claims fell slightly, and the low level suggests the labor market remains tight. Rapid price increases and aggressive Fed tightening remain major risks for the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

“The latest manufacturing survey suggests weakening activity and falling price pressures. The outlook remains highly uncertain. Caution is warranted.” ~ Robert Hughes

“Private-sector job openings rebounded slightly in September, suggesting continued resilience. However, the outlook remains highly uncertain.” ~ Robert Hughes