Robert Hughes

Existing-home sales fell 2.2 percent in September and are about even with levels from 2016. Housing activity is unlikely to move significantly higher in the coming months.

Single-family home construction picked up in September while an auto-production strike weighed on an already weak manufacturing sector. Erratic policy and elevated uncertainty continue to restrain activity and keep the economy vulnerable.

AIER’s Leading Indicators index fell in September but remains slightly above neutral. Risks to the economy are rising.

Retail sales were weak in September raising concern about the strength of the economy. However, continued economic expansion remains the most likely path.

AIER’s Everyday Price Index fell 0.1 percent in September, the third decline in the past four months.

Private-sector job openings have fallen in six of the past nine months, suggesting that erratic and incoherent policy may be undermining confidence in the economic outlook.

Small-business confidence remained solid in September, but labor shortages and policy uncertainty are major concerns.

U.S. payrolls added 136,000 jobs in September. The report raises concerns that escalating trade wars and inconsistent, incoherent policies are threatening the economic expansion.

The ISM’s manufacturing PMI fell again in September, extending the weak results from the previous report. Declining trade amid slowing global growth and erratic U.S. policies are keeping risks elevated.

Sales of new single-family homes rose in August, but regional performances vary widely. Still, the gain is unlikely to be the start of a new sustained surge in housing activity.