Robert Hughes

AIER Leading Indicators Index Falls Farther Below Neutral

“The AIER Leading Indicators Index fell farther below neutral in September, approaching the levels at the start of some prior recessions and signaling sharply elevated levels of risk for the outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

Payroll Growth Continues, Labor Market Remains Solid

“Payrolls posted gains in September, but the pace has been slowing. Mixed signs for the labor market, sustained price pressures, and an aggressive Fed tightening cycle remain risks to the outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

Initial Claims Rise but Remain Low

“Weekly initial claims rose, but the low level suggests the labor market remains solid. Rapid price increases and aggressive Fed tightening remain major risks for the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

Consumer Sentiment Remained Weak in September

“Consumer sentiment was essentially unchanged in September and remains at recessionary levels. Inflation expectations fell to a 12-month low, but consumer uncertainty about the outlook remains elevated.” ~ Robert Hughes

Labor Market Remains Tight as Initial Claims Fall Again

“Declining weekly initial claims suggest the labor market remains solid. However, persistently elevated rates of price increases and aggressive Fed tightening remain major risks for the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes