Robert Hughes

New-Home Sales Fall Again

Sales of new single-family homes fell 5.5 percent in September, the fourth decline in a row, while inventory rose for the sixth straight month putting the months’ supply at the highest since 2011. Rising home prices and higher interest rates are likely to weigh on housing activity over coming months and quarters.

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Existing-Home Sales Fall Again

Sales of existing homes fell again in September. The combination of rising home prices and higher interest rates is likely weighing on housing activity, and is likely to restrain activity in the coming months and quarters.

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Florence Hits Jobs Report but Trends Remain Positive

The impact of Hurricane Florence was evident in the September employment report as nonfarm payrolls rose just 134,000. However, the preponderance of data suggests the labor market remains robust and that the economy is likely to grow at a healthy pace.

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ISM Reports Suggest Robust Economic Growth

The latest monthly reports from the Institute for Supply Management show that the economy continued to expand at a robust pace in September. Details in both reports were decisively positive and suggest strong, broad-based growth in the economy.

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Durable-Goods Orders Jump in August

New orders for durable goods jumped 4.5 percent in August while orders excluding aircraft increased 1.4 percent to a new record. Today’s reports suggest that demand remains strong and that the broader economy is maintaining solid momentum in the second half of 2018.

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Housing Data Remain Soft

Sales of new single-family homes rose 3.5 percent in August and are up 12.7 percent from a year ago, however, they are down 11.7 percent from November 2017. Declining affordability suggests that sales are unlikely to move significantly higher in the coming months.

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Manufacturing Surveys Remain Positive

Two surveys on manufacturing showed positive results in September. However significant concerns remain regarding the tight labor market and rising input-cost pressures.

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