Robert Hughes

Housing Permits Fall to the Lowest Level in Two Years

Housing starts rose by 9.2 percent in August. However, housing permits, an indicator of future activity, fell in the latest month, hitting the lowest level since August 2016. Combined with rising interest rates and falling affordability, the outlook for housing is deteriorating.

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Trio of Reports Sends Mixed, but Mostly Positive, Signals

Consumer Sentiment jumped in early September while retail sales and industrial production both posted modest gains though with mixed results among the details. Overall, the three reports suggest solid growth trends, supporting a positive outlook.

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New Record Highs for Small-Business Confidence and Job Openings

The small-business-optimism index from the National Federation of Independent Business jumped to 108.8 in August, a new all-time high. Job openings also reached a new all-time high. Combined, these reports indicate on-going economic strength and support a positive outlook over the coming months and quarters.

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Average Hourly Earnings Growth Accelerates to a Cycle High in August

U.S. nonfarm payrolls added 201,000 jobs in August bringing 12-month total to 2.33 million new jobs while hourly earnings rose 0.4 percent for a 12-month gain of 2.9 percent, the fastest since 2009. Broad-based gains in the labor market are providing support for consumer confidence, consumer spending, and the economy overall.

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Nonmanufacturing Index Rises in August; Initial Claims Lowest Since 1969

The ISM’s nonmanufacturing index rose to a reading of 58.5 from 55.7 in July. The results suggest the nonmanufacturing sector continued to grow in August. That performance is in line with the report for the manufacturing sector and other recent data that point to ongoing expansion for the overall economy.

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ISM Manufacturing PMI Reaches 14-Year High

The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index registered a 61.3 reading in August, the highest reading since 2004. All five components of the PMI showed stronger readings in the latest month. Today’s report suggests a positive outlook for manufacturing.

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Income and Spending Post Gains in July

Personal income rose 0.3 percent in July while total personal consumption expenditures (PCE) rose 0.4 percent. Gains in disposable income should provide support for future increases in spending and suggest a positive outlook for the economy.

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Consumer Confidence Closing In on a New Record High

Consumer Confidence rose for the second month in a row, to the highest level since October 2000. Overall, consumer attitudes remain at historically favorable levels, suggesting support for future gains in consumer spending and overall economic growth.

 

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Durable-Goods Orders Excluding Aircraft Surge to a Record

New orders for durable goods fell 0.2 percent in July, however, excluding aircraft, orders jumped 1.3 percent to a record high. The data suggest that demand remains strong and that the outlook for the economy remains positive.

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