Robert Hughes

Prices and Interest Rates May Be Weighing on Housing

Sales of new single-family homes fell 1.7 percent in July. Slowing sales are coinciding with slowing construction suggesting new-home building is unlikely to contribute significantly to growth in coming quarters.

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Existing-Home Sales Fell Again in July

Sales of existing homes fell in July, the fourth consecutive decline. Declining affordability due to rising home prices and rising interest rates is likely to continue weighing on housing activity in coming quarters.

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Retail Sales Easily Beat Expectations in July

Retail sales for July rose 0.5 percent, marking the sixth consecutive month of gains. The report suggests that U.S. economic growth is maintaining strong momentum, supported by consumer spending.

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Small-Business Confidence Is Booming

The Small Business Optimism Index from the National Federation of Independent Business rose 0.7 points in July, coming in at 107.9, the second-highest in history, extending a run of 20 consecutive months above 100.

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High Rates for Job Openings and Quits Suggest a Very Tight Labor Market

The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows the number of open positions in the private sector was essentially unchanged in June, holding at a very high level. Overall, the data relating to the labor market continue to show strength.

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Despite a Weak Headline, the July Jobs Report Is Upbeat

U.S. nonfarm payrolls added 157,000 jobs in July, below consensus expectations. However, job creation appears to have reaccelerated over the past ten months, supporting gains in hourly earnings. Overall, the report was upbeat.

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Compensation Costs Rose in the Second Quarter

Total compensation costs for all civilian workers rose 0.6 percent in the second quarter, less than the 0.8 percent rise in the first quarter. Compensation-costs increases have trended higher in recent years however, the rate of increase remains moderate by historical measures.

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Real GDP Growth Rebounds Sharply in the Second Quarter

Real gross domestic product rose at a 4.1 percent annualized rate in the second quarter, up from a revised 2.2 percent pace in the first quarter, while consumer-price increases decelerated in the second quarter. Overall, the very solid report suggests the U.S. economic expansion remains healthy.

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Capital-Spending Prospects Remain Strong

New orders for durable goods jumped 1.0 percent in June while new orders for core capital goods rose 0.6 percent. Both are showing strong uptrends over the past two years. 

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