Robert Hughes

Sales of new and existing single-family homes fell in June as inventories rose, boosting the supply of homes on the market, measured in months. Still, the economy overall remains very healthy.

Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 207,000 for the latest week, the lowest reading since 1969, while the Leading Economic Index from The Conference Board posted a 0.5 percent increase in June. Overall, the preponderance of data support an upbeat outlook for the U.S. economy.

Housing construction fell in June as single-family and multifamily starts declined. Housing permits, an indicator of future activity, also fell in the latest month. Overall, housing construction and permits appear to be plateauing after rebounding from the housing boom-bust cycle in the early 2000s.

Industrial production jumped 0.6 percent in June on broad-based gains. Along with other solid economic data and very strong readings from the AIER leading indicators index, the outlook for continued economic expansion remains favorable.

The latest survey from the National Federation of Independent Business shows small-business confidence remains very high, supported by favorable expectations for the economy and future sales. However, the lack of qualified candidates for open positions is a major concern.

Payrolls in the United States rose by 213,000 in June on widespread gains among industries. Combined with other strong economic data and the positive results from the AIER Index of Leading Indicators, today’s report suggests a positive outlook for the current expansion.

New orders for durable goods fell 0.6 percent in May. However, orders have been on a solid rising trend over the past two years and recent declines do not appear to suggest that the rising trend is in danger.

Despite a slight dip in June, consumer confidence remains at historically favorable levels suggesting ongoing economic expansion in the short term. However, consumers’ expectations may be plateauing, possibly reflecting escalating trade tensions.

Sales of existing homes fell 0.4 percent in May to a 5.43 million-unit annual rate versus a 5.45 million pace in April, according to the National Association of Realtors. Sales have been in a flat trend recently, held back by limited inventory.

Retail sales posted the third strong monthly gain in a row following weak performances in January and February. Combining these data with strong readings from the AIER Leading Indicators index, the outlook for the economy remains upbeat.