Robert Hughes

Amid a Slow Recovery, Housing Affordability Stays High

New housing starts came in this week at 1.189 million units at an annual rate in June, while housing permits rose to 1.153 million. Both were increases over the May figures, and are well above the lows following the Great Recession.

Brexit’s Complex Impact on the Economy

The United Kingdom’s surprising June 23 referendum vote to leave the European Union caused dramatic short-term moves in global capital markets. Yet, less than a month after the historic vote on what we know as “Brexit,” much of the initial reaction across capital markets has reversed. 

2Q Sales Expected to Show Improvement

Alcoa will report second quarter sales and profits after the close of U.S. trading today, marking the unofficial start of earnings season. Actually, 23 companies in the S&P 500 have already reported second-quarter results. When we blend those actual results with consensus expectations for those companies that have not yet reported, we find that topline sales growth is expected to fall by 0.7 percent versus a year ago.

After the Brexit Vote: Take a Deep Breath

The results of the referendum in the United Kingdom to leave the European Union have come as a shock to many, especially investors. While we have no greater insight into what the future holds, there are some things that are known.

Economic Outlook Brightens

AIER’s Leading Indicators model rebounded in May to the neutral level of 50, following two months at 38, which had indicated a somewhat higher risk of recession.

Our Economic Model Shows Weakness, Stability

Here at AIER, we use our data-driven Business-Cycle Conditions model as a barometer of the health of the economy, and the risk of recession. Last month, we saw quite a shift downward, as our index of leading indicators fell below the neutral level of 50 for the first time in 110 months. Today we are releasing this month’s results, and our model shows the Leaders index unchanged at 38.