The Daily Economy
Did Polling Really Fail to Spot Trump’s Rise?
Forecasting outcomes in complex systems, such as the sum total of the decisions of millions of human beings, is fraught with opportunities for error. Four years from now, we’ll still be watching the polls, but perhaps we’ll interpret the results with a bit more nuance and humility.
Donald Trump’s Economic Plans
Donald Trump has shocked the world as he won the presidency. Let’s take a closer look at his economic plans, as he discussed them on the campaign trail.
Why One Vote Matters
Take a look at what the candidate is telling supporters about themselves. And think about what your own candidates or party of choice tell you about your own identity and where you fit in. For many people, the decision to take time out of their day to cast a ballot isn’t about tangible personal benefit,…
A Broader Measure of Unemployment Declines
Even though the U-6 unemployment rate has fallen significantly, it remains high by historical standards.
Jobs Report Shows a Continuing Economic Expansion
A moderately upbeat October jobs report suggests the economic expansion continues to grind ahead and the labor market continues to tighten. The October gains in jobs and wages suggest the economy is maintaining positive momentum in the early part of the fourth quarter.
Presidential Elections: There’s a Theorem For That
One classic insight is Arrow’s impossibility theorem, originally published in a 1950 paper by Nobel Prize winning economist Kenneth Arrow. It shows that there is no way to ensure any voting system, will always simultaneously satisfy a list of seemingly desirable conditions. More generally, it makes the same point about the impossibility of aggregating individual…
The Presidential Election and Economics
With the election in mind, here’s a roundup of some of the recent work we’ve done on the subject of presidents, politics and the economy
Manufacturing Employment Shows Some Resiliency
Manufacturing has been one of the challenging areas of the economy this year, but this morning we received data that shows a more positive outlook.
Rising Wages a Positive Sign Heading into Holidays
The preliminary estimate for personal income for the third quarter shows a 3.9 percent increase, the same pace as in the second quarter, according to new data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis this morning. These are solid though not spectacular gains.
Educating Students for a Changing World
AIER continues to innovate in the sphere of economic education. This semester we are helping students gain practical economic research skills as they take applied economic research courses at two universities: the University of Sioux Falls in South Dakota, and the Missouri University of Science and Technology.
Mixed Signals from Today’s Durable Goods Report
Today’s report from the Department of Commerce on new orders and shipments of durable goods sent mixed signals on the state of the economy and outlook for third quarter GDP.
New Home Sales Tick Upward in September
Sales of new single-family homes rose 3.1 percent in September to a pace of 593,000 homes, from a downward revised 575,000 pace in August (see chart). Though new home sales […]
