Robert Hughes

Senior Research Faculty

Robert Hughes joined AIER in 2013 following more than 25 years in economic and financial markets research on Wall Street. Bob was formerly the head of Global Equity Strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, where he developed equity investment strategy combining top-down macro analysis with bottom-up fundamentals. Prior to BBH, Bob was a Senior Equity Strategist for State Street Global Markets, Senior Economic Strategist with Prudential Equity Group and Senior Economist and Financial Markets Analyst for Citicorp Investment Services. Bob has a MA in economics from Fordham University and a BS in business from Lehigh University.

  • What We’ve Learned From Earnings Season

    According to data from FactSet, more than 80 percent of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported first quarter earnings through this morning. Overall, earnings reports have been better than expected, with almost 72 percent beating analyst expectations. Despite the beats, earnings growth overall remains negative, with reported earnings per share down about 7.8…

    What We’ve Learned From Earnings Season
  • Our Economic Model is Flashing a Warning. Here’s Why

    Here at AIER, we predict recessions based on our time-tested, data-dependent Business-Cycle Conditions model. Our April report, which we are releasing today, shows a decline to 38 in our index of Leaders, its first drop below the neutral 50 level in 110 months. We should take notice. But why did it drop?

  • Why Large, Small Caps Perform Differently

    U.S. equity markets have rebounded sharply since mid-February but the performance gap between large caps and small caps is significant.

    Why Large, Small Caps Perform Differently
  • An Interesting Start to Earnings Reporting Season

    Alcoa’s earnings report is typically considered the unofficial start of earnings reporting season. The company is due to deliver results today after the U.S. equity market closes. However, according to data compiled by Factset, 22, or 4.4 percent, of the 505 companies that are currently part of the S&P 500 have already reported first quarter…

  • An Economy, Growing But Vulnerable

    The economic outlook is modestly upbeat, but rife with risks. As we approach the seventh anniversary of the end of the worst recession since the Great Depression, the economy has made substantial progress. There are reasons to believe that later this year businesses could feel more confidence in hiring and making other investments. But obstacles…

    An Economy, Growing But Vulnerable
  • Corporate Earnings Challenged By Slow Growth

    With fourth quarter corporate earnings reports nearly complete, and the beginning of first quarter 2016 earnings reports less than a month away, a final look at the tally suggests corporate earning power remains challenged by slow growth.

    Corporate Earnings Challenged By Slow Growth
  • Positive Signs For the Economy, in Two Charts

    With the backdrop of mixed economic signals in recent weeks, two reports this week suggest some good news for U.S. consumers.

    Positive Signs For the Economy, in Two Charts
  • Consumer Credit, a Double-Edged Sword

    Consumers continued to add debt to their balance sheets in January, according to data released by the Federal Reserve on Monday.

    Consumer Credit, a Double-Edged Sword
  • America’s Savings Problem, In One Chart

    When it comes to personal savings, Americans are doing better than many people think. But there’s still a lot of room for improvement, especially when you look at it in a historical context.

    America’s Savings Problem, In One Chart
  • A Double Boost: Rising Wages, Slow Price Increases

    Wages – average hourly earnings – rose a decent 0.3 percent in January for production and nonsupervisory workers, and an even more impressive 0.5 percent for all workers. Both are up 2.5 percent from a year ago, about as strong a gain as we’ve seen in the current expansion, but well below the peak rates…

    A Double Boost: Rising Wages, Slow Price Increases