Robert Hughes
What Could Push the Economy to the Tipping Point
Although the economy and the stock market are very different entities, they can and do intersect. Their health rely on some of the same fundamentals. Short-term stock market fluctuations, including the recent double-digit percentage plunge, are difficult to fully explain and even more difficult to predict. However, over time, equity markets tend to be driven…
A Strong Employment Report
A strong December payroll gain plus upward revisions to November and October suggest the economy is entering 2016 with good momentum.
Updating How We Predict Recessions
This institute has long been known for its work in identifying turning points in the economy, including predicting recessions. And we have a pretty good track record in that regard since we started studying business cycles in 1953. But such work requires vigilance, and changing with the times as necessary.
Retail Sales Strengthen at Holiday Time
Today’s retail sales report from the Commerce Department contained more good signs for the holiday shopping season, as consumers focus on small-ticket items.
The Implications of Another Strong Jobs Report
A strong November Employment Report plus upward revisions to the blowout October report suggest the economy has good momentum in the always-important fourth quarter.
Jobs: What One Good Report Means
A blowout October Employment Report suggests the economy has regained momentum just in time for the holiday shopping season. Strong numbers across the board in the report sharply raises the likelihood of a Fed rate increase in December. However, one report does not necessarily mean the economy has moved to a significantly stronger growth trend.…
Weak GDP Headline Masks Surprisingly Solid Details
Today’s first release of third quarter GDP shows real GDP grew just 1.5 percent. However, the details of the report suggest a more positive tone.
Mixed Reports May Give Fed (More) Pause
The broadly disappointing September Employment Report continues the recent trend of mixed economic reports but overall suggests the economy continues to grow at a slow to moderate pace.
Data-Dependent Fed Watching Jobs and Autos
The Fed will no doubt be looking carefully at data for August, including the upcoming Employment Situation report, for signs that recent turmoil in the global economy and capital markets may be affecting U.S. consumer or business behavior. Judging by strong auto sales and the continued low level of layoffs, it would appear that the…
A Stronger Rebound, But Moderate Pace Likely
Today’s Gross Domestic Product report shows a stronger rebound for the U.S. economy in the second quarter, but no major shifts in the recent trends.
