Robert Hughes
Consumers’ Views of the Economy Fell in September
“Consumers are becoming less optimistic as Covid cases rise. The declining optimism is likely to have some impact on spending and remains a risk to the economic outlook.” – Robert Hughes
Durable-Goods Orders Rose in August as Core Capital-Goods Hit Another Record High
“New orders for core capital goods hit another new high in August, the ninth record in the last ten months. Continued gains are a positive sign for the economic outlook.” – Robert Hughes
New Single-Family Home Sales Rose but So Did Inventory and Months’ Supply
“New-home sales rose in August but so did inventory and months’ supply. Rising prices will likely continue to force some buyers out of the market, leading to additional inventory build and slower price increases.” – Robert Hughes
Weekly Initial Claims for Unemployment Benefits Rise Again as Continuing Claims Fall
“Weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits rose for a second consecutive week, likely a result of the recent surge in new Covid cases. However, a tight labor market and a record number of open jobs should support a downward trend, but the path may be extended and more volatile.” – Robert Hughes
Existing-Home Sales and Inventory Fell in August
“Existing-home sales and inventories fell slightly in August as high prices and shifting housing preferences weigh on activity.” – Robert Hughes
Multifamily Segment Leads Housing Market Construction in August
“Multifamily housing activity has been surging recently while the single-family segment struggles. Uncertainty due to the latest wave of Covid combined with rising home prices and ongoing labor and materials shortages for builders all contribute to a challenging environment for housing.” – Robert Hughes
Consumer Sentiment Improved Slightly but Remained Low in Early September
“Consumer sentiment remained weak in early September as consumers react to the one-two punch of elevated numbers of new Covid cases and rising prices for many consumer goods. The survey results suggest economic conditions in the second half of 2021 could be disappointing.” – Robert Hughes
Core Retail Sales Post a Strong Gain in August
“Retail sales rose in August with core retail sales particularly strong. Resilient consumer spending is a positive for the outlook but Covid is sustaining an elevated level of uncertainty.” – Robert Hughes
Weekly Initial Claims for Unemployment Benefits Rose but the Four-Week Average Fell
“Weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits rose in the latest week but the trend remains lower. A tight labor market and a record number of open jobs should support the downward trend, but waves of new Covid cases will continue to boost uncertainty for the economic outlook.” – Robert Hughes
Everyday Price Index Rises at a Slower Pace in August
“AIER’s Everyday Price Index posted a slower gain in August but is still up 6.8 percent from a year ago. Prices of many goods and services continue to be distorted by the lingering effects of the pandemic and government shutdowns. As these distortions fade, price pressures are likely to ease.” – Robert Hughes
