Robert Hughes
AIER Leading Indicators Drop Sharply but Remain Above Neutral
“AIER’s Leading Indicators Index posted a sharp decline in August, falling to 58. Five consecutive pullbacks suggest that breadth of growth is likely to narrow in the future. Furthermore, resurging Covid is impacting consumers and threatening the outlook. Caution is warranted.” – Robert Hughes
Weekly Initial Claims for Unemployment Benefits Fall to the Lowest Level Since March 2020
“Weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits fell to a new pandemic low. A tight labor market and a record number of open jobs should help drive initial claims lower, but waves of new Covid cases will continue to disrupt economic activity.” – Robert Hughes
Job Openings Hit Another Record High in July
“Job openings hit another record high in July but the weaker-than-expected August jobs report and surging new Covid cases are clouding the economic outlook.” – Robert Hughes
Covid Resurgence Hurts Recovery in Employment
“Payrolls posted a disappointing gain in August as new Covid cases surge. The outlook is for continued recovery but the threats and headwinds to growth have increased substantially.” – Robert Hughes
Unit Auto Sales Fell Again in August as Shortages Drive Inventory Down and Prices Up
“Light-vehicle sales fell for a fourth consecutive month in August, falling farther below the recent typical range. Component shortages continue to disrupt production causing inventories to plunge and prices to surge.” – Robert Hughes
Weekly Initial Claims for Unemployment Benefits Appear to be Trending Lower Again
“Weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits fell for the fifth time in the last six weeks, hitting the lowest level of the pandemic though continuing claims ticked up. A tight labor market and a record number of open jobs should help drive initial claims lower, but rising Covid cases remain a threat to the outlook.”…
Labor, Materials, and Logistical Struggles Continue for the Manufacturing Sector
“Demand for manufactured goods remained very strong in August. However, labor, production, and logistical issues – many of which are worsening with the surge in new Covid cases – continue to restrain supply and pressure prices.” – Robert Hughes
Covid Concerns and Rising Prices Drag Consumer Confidence Down in August
“Consumer attitudes are becoming less optimistic as Covid cases rise. The waning optimism could impact spending and adds to the growing list of risks to the economic outlook” – Robert Hughes
New Single-Family Home Sales Rise but Signs of Moderation Are Emerging
“New-home sales rose in July while supply conditions eased a bit further. Rising prices, somewhat higher mortgage rates, and resurgent Covid cases are likely to sustain continued crosswinds and increased uncertainty for the housing market.” – Robert Hughes
Existing Single-Family Home Sales Rose in July but Condo Sales Fell
“Existing-home sales and inventories rose slightly in July as high prices and shifting housing preferences weigh on the recent pace of activity.” – Robert Hughes
