Robert Hughes

New orders for durable goods decreased in May while core capital-goods orders rose; both appear to be plateauing amid rising uncertainty regarding the economic outlook.

Single-family housing activity continues to weaken with little evidence to suggest significant gains in the near future, but multifamily housing activity remains robust.

Gains in retail sales and industrial production in May are a positive for the economy, but trade wars are impacting consumer attitudes and represent a threat to the economic outlook.

Small-business confidence rose in May while job openings remain at historically high levels in April. Both are positive signs for the economy despite the high level of uncertainty caused by erratic trade policy.

U.S. nonfarm payrolls added 75,000 jobs in May, pulling the four-month average down to 124,000. Employment is a coincident indicator and no one knows what will happen over the next year, but the weakness over the last four months suggests caution, not panic.

Reports from the Institute for Supply Management suggest continued economic expansion with elevated levels of concern over rising tariffs and shortages of labor.

Auto sales rose in May, and weekly data suggest consumer spending is solid. However, factory orders were weak in April. Currently, there is little hard data to suggest a recession is imminent. The outlook remains cautiously optimistic.

Consumer attitudes were generally upbeat in May, supported by a strong labor market, but escalating trade wars and higher tariffs are having a significant negative impact.

Initial claims remain very low in May, but revised data still show a poor performance for private domestic demand in the first quarter. Though economic data are still somewhat mixed, some recent positive signs are emerging.