Robert Hughes
New Single-Family Home Sales Jump in August, but Headwinds Intensify
“New-home sales bounced higher in August, but inventories rose again. Elevated prices and surging mortgage rates reduce affordability and are likely to weaken future demand.” ~ Robert Hughes
Consumer Confidence Rose Again in September, but Risks Remain
“Consumer confidence improved in September, and inflation expectations eased slightly. An aggressive Fed tightening cycle, elevated price pressures, and the fallout from Russian aggression in Ukraine remain risks for the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes
Real Nondefense Capital-Goods Orders Remain in a Flat Trend
“Real manufacturers’ new orders trend growth remains weak. Rising prices, Fed policy tightening, and global turmoil sustain elevated risks.” ~ Robert Hughes
Consumer Inflation Expectations Fell and Sentiment Edged Higher in Early September
“Consumer sentiment edged higher in early September but remains at recessionary levels. Inflation expectations fell to a 12-month low, but consumer uncertainty about the economy rose.” ~ Robert Hughes
Industrial Output Fell, but Manufacturing Output Rose Slightly in August
“Manufacturing output rose slightly in August. However, elevated price pressures, weak consumer sentiment, and an aggressive Fed tightening cycle remain risks. Caution is warranted.” ~ Robert Hughes
Real Core Retail Sales Fell in August, Trend Growth Is Weak
“Real core retail sales fell in August, and the recent trend growth is weak. Threats to the economy remain significant, and risks remain elevated. Caution is warranted.” ~ Robert Hughes
Initial Claims Fall for the Fifth Consecutive Week
“Weekly initial claims fell for a fifth consecutive week suggesting the labor market remains solid. Rapid price increases, low consumer confidence, and aggressive Fed tightening remain major risks for the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes
AIER Leading Indicators Index Signals Continued Elevated Risks
“The AIER Leading Indicators Index remained well below neutral in August, signaling broadening economic weakness and sharply elevated levels of risk for the outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes
AIER’s Everyday Price Index Falls 1.3 Percent in August
“AIER’s Everyday Price Index fell 1.3 in August, driven by plunging gasoline prices. An aggressive Fed tightening cycle, consumer pessimism, and fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine remain threats to the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes
Initial Claims Fall for the Fourth Consecutive Week
“Weekly initial claims fell for a fourth consecutive week suggesting the labor market remains solid. Rapid price increases, low consumer confidence, and aggressive Fed tightening remain major risks for the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes
