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“The AIER Leading Indicators Index fell farther below neutral in September, approaching the levels at the start of some prior recessions and signaling sharply elevated levels of risk for the outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes
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“The AIER Leading Indicators Index remained well below neutral in August, signaling broadening economic weakness and sharply elevated levels of risk for the outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes
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“AIER’s Everyday Price Index fell 1.3 in August, driven by plunging gasoline prices. An aggressive Fed tightening cycle, consumer pessimism, and fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine remain threats to the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes
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“AIER’s Everyday Price Index fell 0.6 in July, the first drop since November 2020. An intensifying Fed tightening cycle, consumer pessimism, and fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine remain threats to the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes
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The AIER Leading Indicators Index is well below neutral, signaling broadening weakness in the economy and sharply elevated levels of risk for the outlook. Caution is warranted.
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“AIER’s Everyday Price Index rose 2.4 in June, pushing the 12-month gain to another record high. Sustained price pressures, an intensifying Fed tightening cycle, and fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine remain threats to the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes
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“AIER’s Leading Indicators Index fell to 42 in June. Any additional declines that take the leading index farther below the current reading would suggest a significantly higher risk of recession. Caution is warranted.” ~ Robert Hughes
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“AIER’s Leading Indicators Index returned to a neutral 50 reading in May. Persistent upward pressure on prices, labor shortages and turnover, fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine, periodic lockdowns in China, and an intensifying Fed tightening cycle remain significant risks to the economy. Caution is warranted.” ~ Robert Hughes
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One year ago, in the Summer 2021 issue of the Harwood Economic Review, we asked: “Is Inflation Back?” The answer is now clear. Inflation is back – and at 40 year highs. After years of easy money, it is time to face the music.
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“AIER’s Everyday Price Index rose 2.1 in May led by energy prices, pushing the 12-month gain to a record high. Sustained price pressures, a new Fed tightening cycle, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and lockdowns in China remain threats to the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes
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“AIER’s Leading Indicators Index fell eight points to a below-neutral 46 in April. Rising prices, a new Fed tightening cycle, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and new lockdowns in China are risks to the economic outlook. Caution is warranted.” ~ Robert Hughes
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“AIER’s Everyday Price Index rose again in April led by food prices. Sustained price pressures, a new Fed tightening cycle, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and lockdowns in China are threats to the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes
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