First, there have been previous instances (months in 2003 and 2005, for example) when the index dipped below 50 but bounced back the following month. On one occasion in 1995, it fell below 50 for an extended period, yet no recession occurred (Chart 1). Second, the underlying economic data are subject to revision over the coming months. Revised data could significantly alter the signals from individual indicators. For both reasons, it is extremely important to wait until more information is available before asserting that a recession is imminent.
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1.Overview
2. Economy
3. Inflation
4. Policy
5. Investing
6. Pulling It All Together/Appendix