Business-Cycle Conditions 11/01/2010

November 2010: Percent of Leaders Expanding Remains at 92; Cyclical Score of Leaders Increases to 91      Ask anyone on the street and they will tell you that it isn’t […]

November 2010: Percent of Leaders Expanding Remains at 92; Cyclical Score of Leaders Increases to 91
    
Ask anyone on the street and they will tell you that it isn’t a recovery if the jobs aren’t coming back. And they aren’t.

This month, we downgraded our broadest jobs measure, nonagricultural employment, from probably expanding to indeterminate. A coincident indicator, it describes the current situation, and right now, it epitomizes the flagging economy. The series has been decreasing for four months. It seems that hiring of temporary census workers boosted employment for several months beginning October 2009. Once the census work ended, employment began to decline again.