Each month, one of our Research Reports articles is devoted to current business-cycle conditions. Each of these monthly discussions includes a full set of charts of AIER’s primary leading, coincident and lagging statistical indicators. We also produce two charts that aggregate the movements of the 12 leading indicators. We often publish these two charts with the monthly report, however, space does not always permit them to be included.
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“Existing-home sales fell sharply in December, but supply remains very tight. Shifting housing preferences and rising mortgage rates are likely to continue to impact demand over the coming months and quarters.” ~ Robert Hughes
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“Weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits rose to a three-month high, possibly impacted by the recent surge in new Covid cases. Regardless, the labor market remains very tight.” ~ Robert Hughes
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“Housing activity was solid in December. However, rising home prices and higher mortgage rates may be headwinds for demand while elevated commodity costs remain a challenge for homebuilder profits.” ~ Robert Hughes
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“Industrial output fell in December, but many industries are producing more now than prior to the pandemic. Still, it may take some time for materials shortages and logistical problems to be fully resolved.” ~ Robert Hughes
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“Retail sales fell in December but remain at a high level, sustaining pressure on prices. However, there may be early signs of easing pressures as sales growth moderates and inventories rise.” ~ Robert Hughes
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“Weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits rose to a two-month high, possibly impacted by the current surge in new Covid cases. Regardless, the labor market remains very tight.” ~ Robert Hughes
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“AIER’s Everyday Price Index was unchanged in December as falling motor fuels prices offset other gains. Despite waves of new Covid cases, progress boosting output is being made and that should eventually ease some price pressures.” ~ Robert Hughes
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“The AIER Leading Indicators index held steady again in December, coming in at a neutral 50 for a third month. The result suggests continued economic expansion but with elevated risks. Shortages of labor and materials continue to sustain upward pressure on prices but there may be some early signs of easing for some of those…
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“Payrolls growth disappointed again in December. While the outlook is for continued recovery, difficulties hiring may restrain output growth, sustaining upward price pressures.” ~ Robert Hughes
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“The services sector expanded for the 19th consecutive month in December. While shortages of labor and materials are continuing to restrain output and sustain upward pressure on prices, some data suggest some pressures may be starting to ease.” ~ Robert Hughes
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“Weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits have stabilized at a low level while continuing claims reflect the end of emergency programs. The labor market remains very tight.” ~ Robert Hughes
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“Light-vehicle sales fell again in December, but assemblies rose in November. Record low inventories continue but in a possibly positive sign, prices ticked down.” ~ Robert Hughes