Each month, one of our Research Reports articles is devoted to current business-cycle conditions. Each of these monthly discussions includes a full set of charts of AIER’s primary leading, coincident and lagging statistical indicators. We also produce two charts that aggregate the movements of the 12 leading indicators. We often publish these two charts with the monthly report, however, space does not always permit them to be included.
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“AIER’s Everyday Price rose 0.93 percent in January, following a decline of 1.3 percent in December 2022. Some persistently high and rising prices amid a slowing and uneven deflation is likely to raise the Fed’s terminal policy rate and increase the risk of recession in the next 24 months.” ~ Peter C. Earle
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“The US economy grew in the 4th quarter of 2022, but caution is warranted. Money supply growth has turned negative, consumer and business confidence are in decline, and economic fundamentals are softening broadly.” ~ Peter C. Earle
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“Consumer sentiment improved in January, sustaining the recent uptrend, though the overall level remains weak. Short-term inflation expectations fell sharply, and long-run expectations remain well anchored.” ~ Robert Hughes
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“AIER’s Everyday Price Index fell 1.3 in December, the fifth decline in the last six months. Emerging signs of slowing economic activity, an aggressive Fed tightening cycle, and fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine remain threats to the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes
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“Initial claims fell slightly, but job cut announcements are trending higher. Elevated consumer price increases and aggressive Fed tightening remain major risks for the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes
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“Services-sector survey suggests contraction in December and is consistent with weak results from the manufacturing-sector survey. Should these results persist, it would be an ominous sign for the economy.” ~ Robert Hughes
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“Payrolls rose in December, but the pace appears to be slowing. Mixed signs for the labor market, sustained price pressures, and an aggressive Fed tightening cycle remain risks to the outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes
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“Light-vehicle sales slowed again in December and remain well below pre-pandemic rates. Inventories rose, and prices fell in November.” ~ Robert Hughes
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“Initial claims fell to a 14-week low, but job cut announcements are trending higher. Elevated consumer price increases and aggressive Fed tightening remain major risks for the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes
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“The latest manufacturing survey suggests broad weakness and falling price pressures for manufacturers. The outlook remains highly uncertain. Caution is warranted.” ~ Robert Hughes
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“Private-sector job openings fell in November but remain high, suggesting an ongoing labor shortage. However, the outlook remains highly uncertain.” ~ Robert Hughes
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It’s been said that the only constant in life is change. That idea certainly holds true for economies. Research at AIER is based on sound economic theory and backed by empirical analysis. The same combination of theory and empirical study is the foundation of our Business-Cycle Conditions model. In simple terms, our model is a…