Business Conditions
Each month, one of our Research Reports articles is devoted to current business-cycle conditions. Each of these monthly discussions includes a full set of charts of AIER’s primary leading, coincident and lagging statistical indicators. We also produce two charts that aggregate the movements of the 12 leading indicators. We often publish these two charts with the monthly report, however, space does not always permit them to be included.
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Business Conditions Monthly June 2023
“At present we continue to believe that the US will enter a recession by September 2024, but will adjust our perspectives if and when necessary as new data and facts become available.” ~ Peter C. Earle
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May 2023 Business Conditions Monthly
“In addition to the likelihood of an additional one or more rate hikes before the end of this year, our March 2023 prediction of a US economic recession within the next twelve to eighteen months–by end-of-summer 2024–remains intact.” ~ Peter C. Earle
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Business Conditions Monthly April 2023
“AIER’s April Business Conditions Monthly indicators reflect the disparate, and to some extent offsetting economic signals emergent within the US economy today.” ~ Peter C. Earle
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AIER’s Everyday Price Index Up 0.60 Percent in April 2023
“AIER’s Everyday Price Index (EPI) rose 0.60 percent in April 2023 following being essentially unchanged in March and rising 1.6 percent in January and February.” ~ Peter C. Earle
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Stagflation Lite: 1st Quarter US GDP Growth Weakens to 1.1 Percent Amid a Renewed Inflationary Surge
“The current US economic environment could be categorized as stagflation lite, demonstrating as it does relatively resilient employment amid increasingly entrenched inflation and weakening growth.” ~ Peter C. Earle
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Business Conditions Monthly March 2023
“No indicators are conclusive, and all are subject to change or revision. But in the the aggregate, current data suggests that US economic fundamentals are deteriorating. The current baseline estimate is for an economic recession within the next twelve to eighteen months.” ~ Peter C. Earle
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AIER’s Everyday Price Index Flat in March 2023
“AIER’s Everyday Price Index (EPI) rose 0.03 percent in March 2023, following increases of 0.93 percent in January and 0.67 percent in February.” ~ Peter C. Earle
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Business Conditions Monthly February 2023
“The AIER Leading Indicator remained essentially neutral in February 2023, maintaining the level of 58 from the previous month. Our Roughly Coincident Indicator rose from 50 to 92 in February 2023, with the Lagging Indicator falling from 50 to 33.” ~ Peter C. Earle
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AIER’s Everyday Price Index rises 0.67% in February 2023
“As was the case in January 2023, AIER’s Everyday Price Index shows a larger month-over-month increase in household costs than either the headline or core Consumer Price Index readings indicate.” ~ Peter C. Earle
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Business Conditions Monthly February 2023
“In January 2023, the AIER Leading Indicators rose to a just-above-neutral 58, with the Coincident and Lagging Indicators falling to a neutral 50. This is the most neutral the Business Conditions Monthly have been since the Spring of 2020.” ~ Peter C. Earle
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AIER’s Everyday Price Index Increases Nearly 1% in January 2023
“AIER’s Everyday Price rose 0.93 percent in January, following a decline of 1.3 percent in December 2022. Some persistently high and rising prices amid a slowing and uneven deflation is likely to raise the Fed’s terminal policy rate and increase the risk of recession in the next 24 months.” ~ Peter C. Earle
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4th Quarter 2022 GDP Shows Growth, but Deteriorating Fundamentals
“The US economy grew in the 4th quarter of 2022, but caution is warranted. Money supply growth has turned negative, consumer and business confidence are in decline, and economic fundamentals are softening broadly.” ~ Peter C. Earle
