Business Conditions
Each month, one of our Research Reports articles is devoted to current business-cycle conditions. Each of these monthly discussions includes a full set of charts of AIER’s primary leading, coincident and lagging statistical indicators. We also produce two charts that aggregate the movements of the 12 leading indicators. We often publish these two charts with the monthly report, however, space does not always permit them to be included.
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AIER Leading Indicators Index Hits Highest Level Since 2018
“The AIER Leading Indicators index rose to 92 in March, the highest since 2018, as declining government restrictions boost current economic activity and the outlook for future growth.” – Robert Hughes
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AIER Leading Indicators Index Moves Higher in February
“AIER’s Leading Indicators Index rose in February, hitting the highest level since 2018, suggesting broadening activity and continued economic expansion.” – Robert Hughes
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AIER Business Cycle Indicators Were Little Changed in January
“AIER’s Business Cycle Conditions indexes were little changed in January, holding solidly above the neutral threshold of 50, suggesting continued economic expansion ahead.” – Robert Hughes
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Favorable readings continue for the AIER Leading Indicators Index but Policy Threats Remain High
“The uneven economic recovery continues, and future expansion is likely, but restrictive government policies remain a significant threat to the outlook.” – Robert Hughes
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AIER’s Leading and Roughly Coincident Indexes Were Favorable in November
“The U.S. economy expanded in November but concerns about the future linger. The potential for renewed lockdown policies to restrain future growth remains significant.” – Robert Hughes
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AIER’s Leading Indicators Index Improves Again in October
“The U.S. economy continued to recover in October, but the pace of recovery in some areas has slowed. The potential for renewed lockdown policies remains a threat to future growth.” – Robert Hughes
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AIER’s Leading Indicators Index Surges in September as Recovery Broadens
“AIER’s Leading Indicators index rose sharply in September, jumping to 67, suggesting the recovery has broadened substantially and may signal the end of the recession.” – Robert Hughes
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AIER’s Leading Indicators Index Improves in August but Remains Well Below Neutral
The AIER Business Cycle Conditions indexes remained well below neutral in August, suggesting a rapid recovery is unlikely and that full recovery may be more drawn out, uneven, and uncertain.
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AIER’s Leading Indicators Index Takes A Small Step Up in July
AIER’s Leading Indicators index increased to 8 in July. The result suggests a rapid recovery is unlikely and that full recovery is likely to be more drawn out, uneven, and uncertain.
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AIER’s Leading and Roughly Coincident Indicators Indexes Remain at 0 in June.
While signs of rebound in some measures of economic activity have started to emerge, reinstatement of lockdown restrictions could smother the nascent recovery.
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Hitting Bottom: AIER’s Leading and Roughly Coincident Indicators Indexes Drop to 0
Despite the widespread devastation to the economy, there are a few statistics showing signs of modest rebounds, supported by the easing of restrictions placed on people and businesses.
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May 2020 Business Conditions Monthly
AIER’s Leading and Roughly Coincident Indicators indexes drop to 33, reflecting the economic devastation.
