Central Banking
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Incentive Problems with Discretionary Central Banking
“Discretionary central banking creates bad incentives. To overcome bad incentives, we must take away the discretion. The Fed, so long as it exists, should follow a rule.” ~ Alexander W. Salter
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Global Productivity Growth Post-Covid – Down But By No Means Out
“The current pandemic has yet to run its course, and the social and economic impact will take much longer to work its way through. Productivity growth, in the medium term, is liable to disappoint, but deferred creative disruption – a deferral which artificially low interest rates have allowed to persist since 2008, if not earlier…
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Galbraith Offers a Poor Defense of MMT
“The rise of MMT on the political left will no doubt continue. It is politically expedient. It provides a justification for spending. Political expediency does not imply theoretical soundness, however. And defenses along the lines offered by Galbraith do little to assuage very real concerns.” ~ Nicolás Cachanosky
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Monetary Rules have been Interpreted to Justify the Status Quo
“I can only imagine that those in charge of monetary policy, following Woodford and the precedent set by Bernanke, see stable implementation of a fixed monetary rule as being an antiquated idea, obviously inferior to their more flexible interpretation of rule-based policy. Their perspective, now widely shared among monetary theorists and policymakers, risks leaving us…
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Dry Tinder at the Fed
“A more significant stash of dry tinder lurks in the Federal Reserve computers (hat tip: Cathie Wood). I refer to the reserves that commercial banks hold in their accounts at the Fed. At one time, they were required to hold balances equal to 10% of their demand deposit liabilities and were free to hold more—excess…
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Sovereign Debt After Covid-19: The Wrong View
“Like many others, I am concerned about the sovereign debt market in the wake of Covid-19. But providing more funds to governments committed to maintaining an unsustainable course is not a solution. These countries need serious institutional reforms.” ~ Nicolás Cachanosky
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Knowledge Problems With Discretionary Central Banking
“You need to make some truly heroic assumptions in order for discretionary monetary policy to outperform rule-bound policy. Rarely do any of those assumptions hold. Never do they all hold. If we want a well-functioning central bank, the best we can do is to have rules.” ~ Alexander W. Salter
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Making Money Lawful
“In terms of incentives, politicians can’t meddle, and central bankers can’t distribute unnecessary largesse, if monetary policy is constrained by a rule. Given that the Fed exists, and isn’t going anywhere soon, the best course of action is to ditch the ‘discretion’ part of ‘constrained discretion.'” ~ Alexander W. Salter
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The Biggest Janet Yellen Red Flag Is George Akerlof
“While Yellen is surely smart in the book sense, there’s absolutely nothing remarkable about her economic knowledge. In truth, her ideology is very unoriginal, and is rooted in the hard-to-credit view that economic growth can be engineered via the forced redistribution of wealth from producers to consumers.” ~ John Tamny
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Important Factors Driving Bitcoin’s Drastic Growth in 2020
“The swift growth of Bitcoin signals a number of important financial milestones as well as warning signs. Signals that not only lend some support to the cryptocurrency’s value but also provide important insight into our current state of financial affairs.” ~ Ethan Yang
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FedCoin Revisited
“We don’t know whether the Fed would take steps to eliminate cash or impose negative rates on FedCoin balances. We don’t know how it would go about intermediating funds. But such speculations should make one thing clear: there are risks. At the least, we should develop strong institutional checks before permitting the Fed to plow…
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The Complexity of Monetary Policy and the Effectiveness of the Fed’s Commitment to a Higher Rate of Inflation
“A better policy would be to bring greater clarity to the structure and effects of the Fed’s policy framework so as to improve the quality of investor expectations. So long as investors feel that they might as well be reading tea leaves to predict Fed policy, the Fed will struggle to anchor investor expectations of…
