Central Banking
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Operation Climate-Change Choke Point
“The Fed—an institution that, time and again, has proven that it cannot forecast the inflation rate or GDP growth over the next three months let alone years into the future—gets to decide what level of individual bank losses are ‘accurate’ in these hypothetical climate apocalypse scenarios.” ~ Paul H. Kupiec
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The Renewed Politicization of the Federal Reserve
“Central bank independence can only be maintained by focusing on the narrow goals assigned by Congress. By straying from its mandate, Fed officials have chosen to base their decisions on politics rather than on sound economics.” ~ Thomas L. Hogan
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The Fed is Responsible for Great Inflations
“It’s time the Fed accepts responsibility and moves decisively to curb inflation before the problem gets even worse. Volcker’s Fed whipped inflation, and Powell’s Fed can, too.” ~ Nicholas Curott & Tyler A. Watts
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Asymmetric Average Inflation Targeting and Expectations
“A conventional average inflation target would have anchored expectations and reduced the inflation risk of long-term contracting, promoting economic growth in the process. An asymmetric average inflation target falls far short of that goal.” ~ William J. Luther
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Mandate Drift at the Fed Is Par for the Course
“We must decide, so long as we have a central bank, what we want it to do. The best feasible reforms tighten the Fed’s leash. A constrained Fed is a competent Fed. A drifting Fed is a danger to the public.” ~ Alexander William Salter
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Why the Money Supply Should (Sometimes) Change
“In the long run, the money supply isn’t that important. But in the short- to medium-run, it’s pretty important. There are good reasons for the money supply to change.” ~ Alexander William Salter
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Has the Fed Abandoned Its Average Inflation Target?
“Despite affirmations to the contrary, the Fed appears to have abandoned its average inflation target. Excessive nominal spending has pushed prices well above the level consistent with the Fed’s average inflation target.” ~ William J. Luther
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Who Needs the Dual Mandate?
“The American public understands inflation and policymakers have a reasonable degree of control over it. When choosing a policy rule, we need humility first and foremost. Let’s stop asking the Fed for more than it can deliver.” ~ Alexander William Salter
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Government Debt and Inflation: Reality Intrudes
“Sooner or later, absent substantially lowering government spending or raising taxes, interest payments will overwhelm the government’s budget. The situation might even be termed a sovereign debt crisis.” ~ Gerald P. Dwyer
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FOMC Projects Higher Inflation
“Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s November statement killed the idea that inflation would be transitory. The most recent projections from the FOMC show how deeply that idea has been buried.” ~ William J. Luther & Morgan Timmann
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Stages of Quantitative Tightening
“There are several steps to go before the Federal Reserve starts selling assets to reduce the size of its balance sheet. That type of active tightening will probably not begin for a while.” ~ Thomas L. Hogan
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Did Ben Bernanke Implement QE before the 2008 Financial Crisis?
“The Bernanke Fed was practicing QE much earlier than is widely thought. This early QE experiment, likely intended to stabilize short-term inflation expectations, transformed monetary policy prior to the crisis.” ~ James L. Caton
