Monetary Policy
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Inflation Surges in January
“How high rates will ultimately go depends on how inflation evolves over the next few months — and how quickly the Fed reacts to restore confidence in its longer term-inflation projections. The January PCEPI release marked a step in the wrong direction.” ~ William J. Luther
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The Federal Reserve Accountability Act in Light of 333 Years of American Experiments
“By making the Fed so much more controlled by Washington, and removing even the appearance of private-sector influence, the proposed amendment could fatally weaken the Fed’s political legitimacy.” ~ Dror Goldberg
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Joblessness and the Fed
“Without a symmetric response to deviations from the target, the Fed’s so-called average inflation target will not produce 2 percent inflation on average. Instead, it will tend to produce inflation that exceeds 2 percent. That’s a far cry from price stability.” ~ Alexander William Salter
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The Tragedy of the Monetary Commons
“While relatively well-functioning governments have managed to find mechanisms that mitigate the problem, it seems unlikely that Argentina and Brazil will be able to prevent a tragedy of the monetary commons given their history of money and fiscal mischief.” ~ Bryan Cutsinger
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Supply Constraints and Inflation, Revisited
“The Fed was late to realize nominal spending was surging and failed to correct course promptly when it realized it had made a mistake. Prices are higher today—and will remain permanently higher—as a consequence.” ~ William J. Luther
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Efforts to Depoliticize the Fed Will Likely Make Matters Worse
“These efforts to increase Congressional oversight are unlikely to depoliticize the Fed. Indeed, they are likely to make matters even worse.” ~ Nicolás Cachanosky
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Should the Fed Stop Tightening?
“The Fed should stay the course. Putting the nail in the inflationary coffin is more important than hyper-calibrating a ‘soft landing.’ But it likely won’t be long before we’re done.” ~ Alexander William Salter
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The FOMC: To Pause or Not to Pause?
“Given uncertainties surrounding the unusual stimulus and the lagged effects of monetary policy, it would be prudent to hold the Federal Funds rate constant for a few months and see how the economy responds to recent policy.” ~ Gerald P. Dwyer
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Headline Inflation Falls, But Core Inflation Remains Elevated
“At this point, it seems likely Fed officials will move forward with a 25 basis point hike. But how high they will push rates this year and how long they will keep rates high remain open questions.” ~ William J. Luther
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Rising Use of the Fed’s Discount Window Raises Questions
“The fact that the amounts being borrowed at the discount window are rising in an oscillatory fashion with progressively higher ‘highs’ and higher ‘lows’ hints, while not conclusively, that the amounts being borrowed are increasing as the Fed increases rates.” ~ Peter C. Earle
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Beware the Soft Landing Narrative (Video)
“Earle thinks a more charitable version of the Fed’s handling of monetary policy over the last three years might emerge, resulting in less public skepticism about the limits of monetary policy.” ~ AIER
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Welcome the Disinflation, Beware the Narrative
“Let us all hope that disinflation proceeds expeditiously and, if it does, we remain mindful that the outcome is in spite of, rather than owing to, central bankers and their narrow assortment of lagging and unpredictable policy instruments.” ~ Peter C. Earle
