Economic Freedom

“AIER’s Leading Indicators Index fell to 42 in June. Any additional declines that take the leading index farther below the current reading would suggest a significantly higher risk of recession. Caution is warranted.” ~ Robert Hughes

“AIER’s Leading Indicators Index fell eight points to a below-neutral 46 in April. Rising prices, a new Fed tightening cycle, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and new lockdowns in China are risks to the economic outlook. Caution is warranted.” ~ Robert Hughes

“AIER’s Leading Indicators Index partially rebounded in March, posting an 8-point rise following a 17-point drop in February. Rapidly rising prices, a new Fed tightening cycle, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine are boosting uncertainty. Expect continued volatility for the AIER business cycle indicators over coming months. Caution is warranted.” ~ Robert Hughes

“AIER’s Leading Indicators Index dropped to 46 in February. Disruptions to labor supply, shortages of materials, and logistics bottlenecks continue to pressure prices. Falling new Covid cases had the potential to support businesses’ efforts to expand production, but turmoil surrounding the Russian invasion of Ukraine has launched a new wave of disruptions. The outlook has…

“AIER’s Leading Indicators Index rose to 63 in January with all three business cycle indicators above neutral for the first time since December 2019. The results suggest continued economic expansion with the potential for a broadening of growth in the economy. However, risks remain elevated as upward price pressures continue and Fed policymakers likely start…