Peter C. Earle

Director of Economics and Economic Freedom and Senior Research Fellow

Peter C. Earle, Ph.D, is the Director of Economics and Economic Freedom and a Senior Research Fellow who joined AIER in 2018. He holds a Ph.D in Economics from l’Universite d’Angers, an MA in Applied Economics from American University, an MBA (Finance), and a BS in Engineering from the United States Military Academy at West Point.

Prior to joining AIER, Dr. Earle spent over 20 years as a trader and analyst at a number of securities firms and hedge funds in the New York metropolitan area as well as engaging in extensive consulting within the cryptocurrency and gaming sectors. His research focuses on financial markets, monetary policy, macroeconomic forecasting, and problems in economic measurement. He has been quoted by the Wall Street Journal, the Financial Times, Barron’s, Bloomberg, Reuters, CNBC, Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, NPR, and in numerous other media outlets and publications.

The Daily Economy4/29/26

Why AI Won’t Kill The Firm

Just as scarcity can't be fully conquered, the economic coordination problems that give rise to firms won’t disappear.

Why AI Won’t Kill The Firm
The Daily Economy4/22/26

Business Conditions Monthly February 2026

Forward-looking indicators are weakening, coincident data are softening, and only lagging measures still reflect past strength. February’s BCM suggests the economy is losing momentum.

Business Conditions Monthly February 2026
The Daily Economy4/17/26

AI Abundance Won’t End Inflation, Nor Make Money Meaningless

Elon Musk claims AI-driven growth could fund UBI transfers without inflation. But relative prices — not just totals — still drive economic allocation.

AI Abundance Won’t End Inflation, Nor Make Money Meaningless
April 14, 2026

Dedollarization: Causes, Constraints, and Consequences

This paper traces the historical ascent of the dollar, explains the institutional foundations of its current supremacy, and surveys the growing landscape of dedollarization initiatives.

Dedollarization: Causes, Constraints, and Consequences
The Daily Economy4/13/26

AIER’s Everyday Price Index Rockets 2.5 Percent in March 2026

Household costs are rising faster than mainstream inflation gauges reveal. US military adventurism is hitting Americans hard.

AIER’s Everyday Price Index Rockets 2.5 Percent in March 2026
The Daily Economy3/25/26

Not 2008, But Still Dangerous: Private Credit’s Squeeze

Private credit is emerging as a key force tightening financial conditions. That feedback loop amplifies macro headwinds.

Not 2008, But Still Dangerous: Private Credit’s Squeeze
The Daily Economy3/23/26

Business Conditions Monthly January 2026

Consumer-level price pressures have eased, but upstream costs are building. Rising producer prices and higher input costs — particularly in metals and energy — suggest continued pipeline pressures.

Business Conditions Monthly January 2026
The Daily Economy3/11/26

AIER’s Everyday Price Index Jumps 0.61 Percent in February 2026

Official CPI suggests moderating inflation, but our in-house index clocks the largest increase in 13 months. Affordability will worsen with the outbreak of war with Iran.

AIER’s Everyday Price Index Jumps 0.61 Percent in February 2026
The Daily Economy3/11/26

Soundness, Trust, and the Real Case Against Fiat Money

The strongest objections to fiat money are moral and institutional, not legal. Inflating a currency erodes trust over time, but it isn't counterfeiting.

Soundness, Trust, and the Real Case Against Fiat Money
The Daily Economy3/4/26

Worries Spread in Private Credit Markets

Risk migrated outside traditional banks, but insolvencies and widening credit spreads are raising questions about leverage and liquidity strain system-wide.

Worries Spread in Private Credit Markets