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In November 2024, all three AIER Business Conditions Monthly indicators signaled a parallel shift in economic conditions. The Leading Indicator rose sharply to 79 from 58 in October, moving decisively […]
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In October 2024, two of the AIER Business Conditions Monthly indicators fell while one remained at neutral levels. The Leading Indicator fell to 58 from 71, returning to the more […]
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In September 2024, the AIER Business Conditions Leading Indicator remained at its expansionary August level of 71. The Roughly Coincident Indicator fell back to 58 (its July value) after a […]
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In August 2024, two of the AIER Business Conditions indicators rose strongly and one fell steeply. The Leading Indicator rose from 58 to 71 while the Roughly Coincident Indicator leapt […]
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A folded $100 bill on a sponge, demonstrating the concept of a soft landing. In July 2024, the AIER Business Conditions Monthly indicators were mixed. The Leading Indicator edged up […]
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In June 2024, all three of the AIER Business Conditions indicators maintained their levels from the previous month. The Leading Indicator stood at a mildly expansionary level of 54, while […]
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In May 2024, the AIER Business Conditions Monthly Leading Indicator sank to a mildly expansionary level of 54, its lowest value since October 2023. The Roughly Coincident Indicator rose to […]
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“The road ahead remains uncertain, though, with potential outcomes ranging from a slow, steady economic rebalancing to sluggishness or even a recession.” ~Peter C. Earle
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In March 2023, the AIER Business Conditions Monthly Leading Indicator fell to its lowest level in five months, and the Lagging Indicator declined for a third consecutive month. The Roughly […]
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In February 2023, the AIER Business Conditions Monthly demonstrated divergent signals yet again. The Leading Indicator rose from 67 to 75 with the Roughly Coincident Indicator spending a fourth month […]