Business Conditions

AIER’s Business Conditions Monthly indicators suggest that the US economy remained under pressure in April, with the Leading Indicator slipping further into contractionary territory. After March’s sharp 12-point drop, the […]

In February 2025, the AIER Business Conditions Monthly indicators painted a picture of a moderately slowing but still resilient US economy. The Leading Indicator held at 54 for the second […]

In December 2024, the AIER Business Conditions Monthly indicators continued to show strength in leading and current economic activity, though the lagging components pointed to signs of underlying weakness. The […]

In November 2024, all three AIER Business Conditions Monthly indicators signaled a parallel shift in economic conditions. The Leading Indicator rose sharply to 79 from 58 in October, moving decisively […]

In October 2024, two of the AIER Business Conditions Monthly indicators fell while one remained at neutral levels. The Leading Indicator fell to 58 from 71, returning to the more […]

In September 2024, the AIER Business Conditions Leading Indicator remained at its expansionary August level of 71. The Roughly Coincident Indicator fell back to 58 (its July value) after a […]

In August 2024, two of the AIER Business Conditions indicators rose strongly and one fell steeply. The Leading Indicator rose from 58 to 71 while the Roughly Coincident Indicator leapt […]

A folded $100 bill on a sponge, demonstrating the concept of a soft landing. In July 2024, the AIER Business Conditions Monthly indicators were mixed. The Leading Indicator edged up […]