William J. Luther
Inflation Remained Low in April, But How Long Can Monetary Policy Remain Tight?
Will the Federal Reserve undershoot its inflation target this year? The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCEPI) grew at an annualized rate of 1.2 percent in April 2025, marking the […]
When Will The Fed Cut Interest Rates?
The latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics confirm that the Federal Reserve has made a lot of progress on inflation. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) grew 2.3 percent […]
Termination Day at the Fed? Probably Not
President Trump is not happy with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. With the economy likely to slow under the weight of the administration’s tariffs and corresponding uncertainty, the president thinks […]
Inflation Remained Elevated in February
The professional forecasters were right: inflation remained elevated in February. The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCEPI), which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, grew at an annualized […]
The Tariff Trade-Off Many Economists Ignore
At its core, economics is about making choices. We face trade-offs. If you want more of this, you must give up some of that. Non-economists often ignore the trade-offs. For […]
Did Inflation Really Elect Trump? The Case for a Deeper Economic Frustration
When asked why Donald Trump won the presidency last November, most people point to inflation. That’s understandable. Prices soared under the Biden administration. In the run up to the election, […]
Inflation Picked Up in January, Latest BEA Data Show
Federal Reserve officials have warned that the disinflation process would be uneven. The latest data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) confirms as much. The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price […]
December Inflation Meets Expectations
The latest inflation data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis largely confirm market expectations. The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCEPI), which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, […]
December Inflation Meets Expectations
The latest inflation data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis largely confirm market expectations. The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCEPI), which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, […]
The Fed Pushes Pause
The Federal Open Market Committee announced on Wednesday it would hold its federal funds rate target at 4.25 to 4.5 percent, ending the three-meeting rate-cut streak that began in September […]
