Each month, one of our Research Reports articles is devoted to current business-cycle conditions. Each of these monthly discussions includes a full set of charts of AIER’s primary leading, coincident and lagging statistical indicators. We also produce two charts that aggregate the movements of the 12 leading indicators. We often publish these two charts with the monthly report, however, space does not always permit them to be included.
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“Single-family starts and permits were off in March while multifamily rose; all remain at solid levels. Surging mortgage rates and elevated home prices are strengthening headwinds for demand while elevated commodity costs remain a challenge for homebuilder profits.” ~ Robert Hughes
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“Industrial output rose again in March. However, a range of economic and geopolitical issues continue to restrain the ability of manufacturers to meet the significantly higher demand that has emerged following the lockdown recession.” ~ Robert Hughes
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“Consumer sentiment bounced higher in early April but remains consistent with prior recessions. Expectations jumped on a decline in gas prices, but economic risks remain elevated. The outlook is highly uncertain.” ~ Robert Hughes
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“Retail sales rose in March but fell after adjusting for price changes. Ongoing labor and materials shortages, turmoil from the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and a new Fed tightening cycle all raise risks for the outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes
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“Weekly initial claims ticked up but remain near a multidecade low, indicating a very tight labor market. The Russian invasion of Ukraine, sustained elevated price increases, and a new Fed tightening cycle have boosted risks to the outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes
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“AIER’s Everyday Price Index surged in March as upward price pressures continue. Global economic turmoil surrounding the Russian invasion of Ukraine and a new Fed tightening cycle are boosting uncertainty for the economy.” ~ Robert Hughes
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“AIER’s Leading Indicators Index partially rebounded in March, posting an 8-point rise following a 17-point drop in February. Rapidly rising prices, a new Fed tightening cycle, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine are boosting uncertainty. Expect continued volatility for the AIER business cycle indicators over coming months. Caution is warranted.” ~ Robert Hughes
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“Services-sector expansion broadened in March as labor shortages eased slightly but materials shortages and price pressures continue. The Russian invasion of Ukraine is a new source of price pressure and disruption to the global economy.” ~ Robert Hughes
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“Light-vehicle sales fell again in March. Assemblies remain weak as component shortages continue to restrain production, but inventory and prices show signs of stabilization recently, though at extreme levels. Global supply chains remain disrupted with the Russian invasion of Ukraine adding to global turmoil.” ~ Robert Hughes
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“Manufacturing-sector demand expanded at a slower pace in March and price pressures intensified. Ongoing labor and logistical issues continue to restrain output and recent events in Ukraine may be yet another source of disruption and further delay the return to normalcy.” ~ Robert Hughes
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“Payroll gains remained strong in March, providing support for growth. However, sustained price pressures, a new Fed tightening cycle, and turmoil surrounding the Russian invasion of Ukraine are significant risks for the economy.” ~ Robert Hughes
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“Personal income rose in February but real income excluding transfers fell, suggesting a threat to real spending. The outlook for the economy has become highly uncertain.” ~ Robert Hughes