Each month, one of our Research Reports articles is devoted to current business-cycle conditions. Each of these monthly discussions includes a full set of charts of AIER’s primary leading, coincident and lagging statistical indicators. We also produce two charts that aggregate the movements of the 12 leading indicators. We often publish these two charts with the monthly report, however, space does not always permit them to be included.
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“Services-sector expansion broadened in March as labor shortages eased slightly but materials shortages and price pressures continue. The Russian invasion of Ukraine is a new source of price pressure and disruption to the global economy.” ~ Robert Hughes
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“Light-vehicle sales fell again in March. Assemblies remain weak as component shortages continue to restrain production, but inventory and prices show signs of stabilization recently, though at extreme levels. Global supply chains remain disrupted with the Russian invasion of Ukraine adding to global turmoil.” ~ Robert Hughes
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“Manufacturing-sector demand expanded at a slower pace in March and price pressures intensified. Ongoing labor and logistical issues continue to restrain output and recent events in Ukraine may be yet another source of disruption and further delay the return to normalcy.” ~ Robert Hughes
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“Payroll gains remained strong in March, providing support for growth. However, sustained price pressures, a new Fed tightening cycle, and turmoil surrounding the Russian invasion of Ukraine are significant risks for the economy.” ~ Robert Hughes
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“Personal income rose in February but real income excluding transfers fell, suggesting a threat to real spending. The outlook for the economy has become highly uncertain.” ~ Robert Hughes
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“Weekly initial claims ticked up but remain near a multidecade low, indicating a very tight labor market. However, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, sustained elevated price increases, and a new Fed tightening cycle have boosted risks to the outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes
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“Job openings and quits remained near record levels in February. Labor difficulties, material shortages, and logistical issues as well as high inflation, a newly initiated Fed tightening cycle, and global political and economic turmoil from the Russian invasion of Ukraine are raising the risks for the U.S. economy.” ~ Robert Hughes
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“Consumer expectations weakened again in March, but improved present views offset the decline, lifting overall consumer confidence. Elevated price pressures, Russian aggression in Ukraine, and a Fed tightening cycle increase risks for the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes
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“Consumer sentiment fell again in March and is consistent with prior recessions. Consumers are concerned about rising prices, fallout from the war in Ukraine, and long-term economic prospects.” ~ Robert Hughes
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“New orders for core capital goods fell in February though the level remains high. Continued strength for business investment is a positive sign for the economic outlook but risks remain elevated.” ~ Robert Hughes
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“Weekly initial claims fell to a multidecade low, indicating the labor market remains very tight. However, the Russian invasion of Ukraine and a new Fed tightening cycle increase uncertainty.” ~ Robert Hughes
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“New-home sales fell again in February and prices may be plateauing, though at a high level. Elevated prices and rising mortgage rates may further weaken demand, and combined with significant inventory, continue to weigh on prices.” ~ Robert Hughes