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“If economies come to be restored, eventually, to their former selves, it will not be because we or our leaders somehow beat a virus. The virus outsmarted everyone. What will fix what the political class has broken is the freedom once again to piece back together the institutions and processes that create the extended order…
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“The choice before us is simple: a central bank that is highly restricted, and therefore effective and independent, or one that is dominated by short-run political concerns, and therefore incompetent and subservient.” ~ Alexander Salter
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“Taken together, the most recent jobs report suggests we could see output recover to 90% or more by the end of August. That’s great news. But a complete recovery might take much longer than that.” ~ William J. Luther
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“Congress should not use the Fed to accomplish fiscal goals through monetary means. There is no good reason to give the Fed a free pass just because their irresponsible decisions come with statutory cover.” ~ Alexander W. Salter
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“Powell admits what’s happening now is outside the Fed’s purview. And, yet, the Fed is doing more than ever.” ~ Alexander Salter
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“Latin American leaders seem at least as likely to bolster their own power, while repressing basic liberties, as they are to mitigate the deleterious effects of the disease.” ~ Nicolas Cachanosky
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Not knowing the relationship between monetary policy and inflation is a risky way to conduct monetary policy. Maybe everything will work out fine; maybe not.
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To move on, the spread must occur. If we employ smart policy, we will allow the virus to spread among the young and shelter our old. We must encourage those with preexisting conditions – hypertension, heart disease, and so forth – to isolate in order to avoid contracting the virus.
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There is a risk that whatever justified measures governments are taking because of the pandemic outbreak will remain as unjustified powers once the pandemic crisis is over.
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Part of the argument for shutting down “inessential” activities is that it is better to have fewer people going to work. This may have been a plausible argument while “flattening the curve.” It misses an important problem beyond that time frame.
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Policymaking is not easy. And policymaking in a pandemic is harder still. The CARES Act is a huge expenditure package. Some of it is likely to promote a speedy recovery. But some of it will drag the recession out unnecessarily.