Alan Reynolds
We Are Measuring Inflation All Wrong: Non-Housing Inflation is Very Low
"Lagged OER and rent overstated inflation by more than two percentage points over the past ten months – raising it to 3.3 percent from 0.6 percent." ~ Alan Reynolds
Inflation in Oil Prices Will Soon Slow to Zero
"One thing we can confidently project about 2022 is that year-to-year measures of 'inflation' in prices of used cars and energy will be near zero by the third quarter, if…
The Fed’s Higher Fed Funds Rate Projections Mean What?
"It is rarely prudent to assume that a central bank’s central planners can predict the future better than you can, or that they really know what they are doing and why."…
A Smarter Debt Limit Bill
"Senate Republicans are expected to indulge in yet another futile game of bluff poker over the symbolic debt limit. They always fold in the end because Congress has no choice…
Asia, Not the US Is the Main Source of Global Warming
"Spending endless billions on lucrative subsidies for electric cars, solar and wind farms, and other boondoggles could not possibly make much difference to future worldwide greenhouse gas emissions that will…
Nixonomics in Retrospect: Devaluation and Wage-Price Controls, August 15, 1971
"Many costly tax and other economic policy mistakes were made in the seventies, but the worst problems of the 1973-82 stagflationary era by far were the legacy of terrible monetary…
Does “Expected Inflation” Explain or Predict Inflation?
"There might be higher inflation ahead, but neither year-to-year CPI changes, the 2020 lockdowns, or news-based monthly opinion polls about expected inflation provide reliable advance clues about what lies ahead.…
Central Planners Send Vaccines to Places Seniors Don’t Live
"Federal officials monopolized the purchase and distribution of vaccines which were sent to state governments, which micromanaged distribution of vaccines to their counties. Vaccines were then rationed by political preferences…
CARES Act Stimulus Did Not “Replace Lost Wages”
"Far from stimulus checks, PPP loans and jobless benefits 'replacing lost wages,' it was instead a swift increase in private wages during the reopening that replaced a swift withdrawal of…
Did State Reopenings (and Closings) Have Little Effect on Spending?
"Vaccines alone cannot thaw frozen state economies unless and until they in some way encourage governors to reopen. If any lockdown-prone governors do reconsider their orders, there is a distinguished…
