Gregory van Kipnis
Publicly Traded Companies Prevail Despite Covid
“Despite the troubling picture regarding national issues, ranging from Covid to monetary and fiscal policies, entrepreneurs are minding the store and finding new and better ways to serve their markets.” ~ Gregory van Kipnis
The 50 States Suffered Differentially During the Lockdowns and Pandemic
“In the aggregate, government spending at all levels (federal, state, and local) had a mildly negative 0.3% effect on the economy. The bottom line is that the private sector actually did a better overall job in most states than governments in terms of managing state and local economic progress.” ~ Gregory van Kipnis
The Fed Targets a Crafted Measure of Inflation: A Cautionary Tale
“Understanding government data for what they are and what they are not is vital to understanding the impossibility of targeting the cost of living, even though the Fed is targeting a crafted measure of price inflation.” ~ Gregory van Kipnis
The Buffett Indicator: Reasons for Doubt
“There are other reasons for the Buffett Indicator ratio to be trending higher. Corporate earnings are growing nearly twice as rapidly as the growth in nominal GDP. The Buffett indicator, though at high historical levels, is not per se signaling that the market is overvalued.” ~ Gregory van Kipnis
Inflation Outlook: Likely Worse Than Expected
“The Fed has painted itself into a box, because if inflation/velocity does heat up beyond what the Fed or markets can tolerate, given that they have been comfortable with somewhat higher long-term rates, the Fed’s only weapon to slow inflation down would be to slow down the economy. Its strongest weapon would be to threaten…
Angst Over High Price-Earnings Levels Likely Misplaced
“Despite the severe disruptions and ‘creative destruction’ that occur from time to time, the returns to capital that fuel innovation and prosperity remain strong. The market is always efficient and fairly priced relative to what is known, but the market can also be above or below its long-term enduring norms for good and rational reasons.…
Reform the K-12 Government- School Monopoly: Economics and Facts
“The economics and facts support the logic of freeing parents to obtain private education and alternative public education for their children. To further facilitate this decision, parents should be given vouchers and credits equal to the cost of public school in their area, which they can freely use to fund their choice of better education…
The Fatal Conceit of COVID-19 Epidemic Models
“The epidemiological world has published countless articles and studies warning against the tendency and ease with which one can overestimate Ro. We have fallen prey to this tendency once again.” Gregory van Kipnis
Focus on the Covid-19 Death Rate
“The most frightening aspect of the coronavirus-19 (COVID-19) epidemic in the US is that it brought about exaggeratedly heightened fear of death. That fear, once magnified to proportions which become palpable to the individual, became the basis for dreadful economic and medical policies from governments and crushed the natural optimism of the public.” ~ Gregory…
