Robert Hughes
Initial Claims for Unemployment Benefits Rise as Restrictions Sustain Uncertainty
Initial claims for unemployment benefits rose in the latest week and unemployment remains very high, suggesting complete economic recovery may be a long way off.
Home Construction Fully Recovers from COVID-19
Housing starts and permits rose in July. The outlook is supported by easing lockdown restrictions, low mortgage rates, and rebounding builder confidence but demand remains uncertain.
Pandemic Lockdown Distortions: Manufacturing Pulls Back While Housing Gains
Distortions to economic activity are becoming more differentiated as lockdowns are partially eased and consumers adjust to current conditions.
Lack of Confidence in Government Stifles Consumer Sentiment Recovery
Policy uncertainty is smothering the recovery in consumer sentiment, putting the economic rebound at risk.
Manufacturing Activity Remains Well Below Pre-Lockdown Levels
A manufacturing rebound continued in July, but activity remains well below pre-lockdown levels. Heightened uncertainty about COVID-19 and future government policies threaten the recovery.
Retail Spending Hits New High in July but Gains Are Not Consistent Among Categories
Retail sales rose to a new high in July, recovering from the policy-induced economic coma but rising uncertainty is a significant risk to future growth.
Initial Claims for Unemployment Benefits Drop Below One Million
Initial claims for unemployment benefits fell in the latest week but unemployment remains very high, suggesting complete economic recovery may be a long way off.
Everyday Prices Rise for a Third Month Led by Gas and Phone Service
AIER’s Everyday Price Index rose 0.5 percent in July, pushed higher by gas and wireless phone services.
Drop in Small-Business Optimism Reflects Renewed Uncertainty
Small-business confidence fell in July as rising COVID-19 cases, political turmoil, and persistent consumer apprehension smother hopes for a rapid rebound.
AIER’s Leading Indicators Index Takes A Small Step Up in July
AIER’s Leading Indicators index increased to 8 in July. The result suggests a rapid recovery is unlikely and that full recovery is likely to be more drawn out, uneven, and uncertain.
