Robert Hughes
Initial Claims for Unemployment Benefits Shrank Again but Remain High
New unemployment claims slowed again but remain high. Other labor market data as well as broader activity measures look more positive but surging new COVID-19 cases could derail growth.
Retail Spending Returned to Trend in June
Retail sales posted another big gain in June, further recovering from the policy-induced economic coma but rising new COVID-19 cases are a risk to future growth.
Manufacturing Activity Increases for A Second Month but Full Recovery Still Far Off
Easing of lockdown policies in May and June is helping the economy on the path to recovery but surging new COVID-19 cases and deaths could derail the progress.
Everyday Prices Surge on Food and Energy Gains in June
AIER’s Everyday Price Index jumped 1.2 percent in June, pushed higher by food and energy, the largest components in the index.
AIER’s Leading and Roughly Coincident Indicators Indexes Remain at 0 in June.
While signs of rebound in some measures of economic activity have started to emerge, reinstatement of lockdown restrictions could smother the nascent recovery.
Total Unemployment and Weekly New Unemployment Insurance Claims Are Falling
Labor market signs point to a nearing end to the policy-induced recession of 2020 but surging new COVID-19 cases could crush the budding recovery.
ISM Nonmanufacturing Index Posts Record Gain in June
The nonmanufacturing sector expanded in June amid easing restrictions but surging new cases of COVID-19 and potential policy responses remain significant risks.
June Unit-Auto Sales Post a 13-million Annualized Rate
Auto sales continued to rebound in June following a two-month plunge during lockdowns but remain well below the prior range.
Labor Market Recovery Continued in June but Surging COVID-19 Cases Raises Uncertainty
Nearly 5 million private U.S. jobs were recovered in June; however, surging new COVID-19 cases are threatening the recovery.
Manufacturing Sector Starting to Grow Again
The ISM Manufacturing survey showed significant improvement in June with several components posting record monthly rates of gains.
