Each month, one of our Research Reports articles is devoted to current business-cycle conditions. Each of these monthly discussions includes a full set of charts of AIER’s primary leading, coincident and lagging statistical indicators. We also produce two charts that aggregate the movements of the 12 leading indicators. We often publish these two charts with the monthly report, however, space does not always permit them to be included.
|
“AIER’s Everyday Price Index fell 0.2 in November, the fourth decline in the last five months. An aggressive Fed tightening cycle, consumer pessimism, and fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine remain threats to the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes
|
“Consumer sentiment improved in December but remains at recessionary levels. Inflation expectations ticked down, and long-run expectations remain well anchored.” ~ Robert Hughes
|
“Consumer credit rose in October, and the growth rate is accelerating. Consumer balance sheets are in good shape, but the combination of rising debt levels and rising interest rates could be a problem down the road.” – Robert Hughes
|
“Rising weekly initial claims and increasing job cut announcements may signal some labor market softening. Rapid consumer price increases and aggressive Fed tightening remain major risks for the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes
|
“Services-sector survey suggests expansion continued in November, and respondents were generally optimistic. However, the outlook for the economy remains highly uncertain.” ~ Robert Hughes
|
“Light-vehicle sales fell in November following a rise in inventory and drop in prices in October.” ~ Robert Hughes
|
“Payrolls gains beat expectations in November, but the pace appears to be slowing. Mixed signs for the labor market, sustained price pressures, and an aggressive Fed tightening cycle remain risks to the outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes
|
“The latest manufacturing survey suggests broadening weakness and falling price pressures for manufacturers. The outlook remains highly uncertain. Caution is warranted.” ~ Robert Hughes
|
“Weekly initial claims fell, but the rising trend in the four-week average and increasing job cut announcements are a warning. Rapid price increases and aggressive Fed tightening remain major risks for the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes
|
“Private-sector job openings fell in October but remain high, suggesting continued resilience. However, the outlook remains highly uncertain.” ~ Robert Hughes
|
“Headline real GDP growth was revised higher in the third quarter, but domestic demand remained weak. Caution is warranted.” ~ Robert Hughes
|
“Consumer confidence fell again in November with consumer expectations at recessionary levels. An aggressive Fed tightening cycle, elevated price pressures, and the fallout from the Russian war in Ukraine remain risks for the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes