Economic Trends
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The Battle for Business Autonomy
“Business leaders must be prepared for congressional hearings more than competitive pressures and entrepreneurial aspirations increasingly require prior approval or must adhere to the scrutiny of external assessment bodies.” ~ Kimberlee Josephson
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Cash, Crime, Minimum Wage, and Unintended Consequences
“When a government policy is enacted, it often seeks to change individual behavior. But human beings are clever and will often respond to policy initiatives in ways that either counteract the initial policy’s goals or create new problems in other spheres.” ~ Anthony Gill
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AIER’s Everyday Price Index Edges Up in June 2023
“The combination of Fed rate hikes and easing demand is clearly having the intended disinflationary effect on the general price level as measured by the various CPIs.” ~ Peter C. Earle
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The Inverted Yield Curve and Next US Recession
“When will the start of the next recession be recognized? On average since 1980 the NBER has waited eight months before assigning a starting date (and fifteen months to assign ending dates), so if the next recession were to begin in early 2024 it might be publicized by August.”
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May 2023 Business Conditions Monthly
“In addition to the likelihood of an additional one or more rate hikes before the end of this year, our March 2023 prediction of a US economic recession within the next twelve to eighteen months–by end-of-summer 2024–remains intact.” ~ Peter C. Earle
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Fungi Bombs and Food Markets
“That people make choices and can substitute towards cheaper items is an underappreciated point for those concerned about fungal pathogens. While fungi might increase prices of some goods, people can purchase relatively cheaper ones. This suggests they might be less likely to suffer from food shortages.” ~ Byron Carson
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President Biden’s Inflation Malarkey
“Dollar depreciation is why prices are rising. The Fed’s monetary policy, aided and abetted by the President’s and Congress’s massive deficits, are the real cause.” ~ Alexander W. Salter
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Dethroning the Almighty Dollar?
“In a poll taken by the World Gold Council, 24 percent of the central banks surveyed intend to continue to purchase gold, and that in summary, ‘Central banks’ views toward the future role of the dollar were more pessimistic than in previous surveys.’” ~ Peter C. Earle
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Can Artificial Intelligence Solve the Socialist Calculation Problem?
“No dictator, benevolent or malevolent, individual or committee, is free of ideology, and as dictators they will have the clout to ensure their ideological perspectives are included in the Machines’ programming, with updating as the dictator(s) believe necessary.” ~ James Hanley
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Some Unpleasant Federal Reserve Arithmetic
“While the Fed is trying to remove the punch bowl with its left hand by raising interest rates, it is trying to put the punch bowl back with its right hand by adding $20+ billion each month in new money to the financial system and periodic ‘assistance’ programs adding even more liquidity to the market.”…
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AIER’s Everyday Price Index Declines Slightly in May 2023
“A slew of contradictory data muddying the assessment of the monetary tightening measures has recently been released.” ~ Peter C. Earle
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Where Has All The Lending Gone?
“Will the traditional banking industry quell the quickening spirit of free banking, or will the growing demands for P2P lending services win out?” ~ David Gillette and Caroline Wright
