Monetary Policy
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Can Congress Rein in the Fed?
“As long as we’re stuck with a central bank, we should give it an unambiguous mandate and watch it like a hawk. Monetary policymakers answer to the people’s representatives, in Congress assembled. Let’s remind them.” ~ Alexander William Salter
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No, Hyperinflation Is Not Right Around the Corner
“The pursuit of sound money is more profitably directed at identifying profligate monetary policy measures, rather than the consequenceless prediction of extraordinary, and extraordinarily unlikely, outcomes.” ~ Peter C. Earle
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Federal Reserve Operating Losses and the Federal Budget Deficit
“In 2023, the Fed will likely report tens of billions of dollars in operating losses as it raises interest rates to combat raging inflation. Will Fed losses increase the budget deficit as logic dictates they should, or will they be treated as an off-budget expenditure?” ~ Paul H. Kupiec & Alex J. Pollock
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The Inflation Tide Appears To Be Turning
“If monthly core inflation rates are at or below 0.2 percent in August and September, we might more confidently conclude that the Fed is back on track. Until then, we can only hope for the best.” ~ William J. Luther
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The Fed’s Tough Year
“The current push to expand the Fed’s mandates is consistent with Shull’s Paradox, which states that the more blunders the Fed makes, the more powers and prestige it gets. But we should be reducing the Fed’s powers and mandates, not increasing them.” ~ Alex J. Pollock
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Why Will Inflation Remain So High For So Long?
“I cannot think of a good reason for inflation to remain high through 2024; but many bad reasons come to mind. The most likely explanation, in my opinion, is that Fed officials do not take their average inflation target very seriously.” ~ William J. Luther
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Understanding the Basics of Money Demand
“If nothing else, a cash-balances interpretation of the equation of exchange can help us better understand the relationship between the money supply and nominal income.” ~ Alexander William Salter
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Price Stability First
“The best the federal government can do right now is to announce that no major policy changes will be implemented until the Federal Reserve gets inflation under control.” ~ Robert E. Wright
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The Fed Needs a Single Mandate
“A purchasing target would direct the Fed towards an achievable goal that would improve American households’ material wellbeing. Legislators from both parties should make a single Fed mandate a key part of their agendas.” ~ Thomas L. Hogan & Alexander William Salter
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No, This Is Not 1970s Style Stagflation
“The FOMC’s current policy stance has precipitated a recession that may modestly deepen as it tardily-but-effectively pursues its commitment to restraining inflation.” ~ James L. Caton
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Price Stability and Nominal GDP Targeting
“While we should not stubbornly insist on first-best policy if the second-best is all we can get, neither should we ignore the question of which policy is first-best. As long as we are reconsidering the Fed’s mandate, nominal GDP targeting should be on the table.” ~ Alexander William Salter
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Should the Federal Reserve Set its Own Goals?
“A target that is not determined solely by the Federal Reserve is less subject to changes solely due to deliberations at the Federal Reserve. It will enhance monetary policy’s effectiveness.” ~ Gerald P. Dwyer
