Business Conditions
AIER’s Everyday Price Index Rises 0.52 Percent in January 2024
“The January 2024 CPI report highlights the challenges of returning inflation to the Fed’s target range and suggests a bumpy road ahead.” ~Peter C. Earle
AIER’s Everyday Price Index Rises 0.52 Percent in January 2024
The AIER Everyday Price Index (EPI) rose 0.52 percent to 284.8 in January 2024. It was the largest percent change since August 2023, and brings the year-over-year EPI change to […]
AIER’s Everyday Price Index Ends 2023 with Third Consecutive Monthly Decline
“The recent reduction in disinflationary pressures related to core goods, which had been a significant factor in easing price pressures in recent months, seems to have diminished.” ~Peter C. Earle
AIER’s Everyday Price Index Ends 2023 with Third Consecutive Monthly Decline
In December 2023, the AIER Everyday Price Index (EPI) fell 0.55 percent to 283.3. It is the third consecutive decline in the index, and brings the 2023 change in the […]
Business Conditions Monthly November 2023
“In light of expectations of falling demand and the increased vulnerability of the US economy to geopolitical shocks, our prediction of a US recession by September 2024 stands.” ~Peter C. Earle
Business Conditions Monthly November 2023
In November 2023, the AIER Business Conditions Monthly indices spiked up in all categories after the dip in October, highlighting the irregular character of economic data in the post-pandemic period. At 67, […]
AIER’s Everyday Price Index Sees Largest Decline in 2023
“While the likelihood of another rate hike in the final FOMC meeting of 2023 this week is low, the slowing rate of disinflation and stubbornly elevated prices suggest that speculation regarding the start of rate cuts is, at best, early.” ~Peter C. Earle
AIER’s Everyday Price Index Sees Largest Decline in 2023
In November 2023, the AIER Everyday Price Index (EPI) fell 0.79 percent to 284.9. This is the largest percentage decline in the index in 2023, and the third-largest since the […]
Business Conditions Monthly October 2023
“While we continue to impartially and vigilantly assess incoming data, our current analysis still points to a recession occurring before September 2024 as the most probable scenario.” ~Peter C. Earle
Business Conditions Monthly October 2023
In October 2023, AIER’s Business Conditions Monthly indices shifted downward. Our Leading Indicator fell to a contractionary 29, a level it has not registered since the period between July and […]
