Peter C. Earle
Trump’s Handwritten Note to Powell: Lower Rates Abroad, So Why Not Here?
Amid growing calls for the Federal Reserve to begin lowering interest rates, White House officials (and the president himself) have adopted the tactic of pointing to the nominal policy rates […]
Is the GENIUS Act Creating a Shadow CBDC System?
In the increasingly complex debate surrounding central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), stablecoins, and the regulatory perimeter of the dollar system, few recent proposals are as quietly consequential as the GENIUS […]
Dollar’s Decline Meets Rising Dedollarization: The Threat Comes from Within
The recent weakness in the US dollar has reignited the debate over the durability of the dollar’s dominance in global finance. Over the first half of the year, the Bloomberg […]
Business Conditions Monthly April 2025
AIER’s Business Conditions Monthly indicators suggest that the US economy remained under pressure in April, with the Leading Indicator slipping further into contractionary territory. After March’s sharp 12-point drop, the […]
AIER’s Everyday Price Index Sees Modest May 2025 Increase
AIER’s Everyday Price Index (EPI) posted a 0.18 percent rise in May 2025, reaching 294.3. The index has now recorded six straight months of increases. Of the twenty-four components making […]
Taking Government Out of GDP, An Update
The latest Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) shows a net decrease from Q4 2024. This net decrease “primarily reflected an increase in […]
Physics Meets Finance: Theoretical Consequences of Man-Made Gold
In a remarkable feat of modern physics, scientists at the Large Hadron Collider have managed to recreate one of humanity’s oldest fantasies: turning lead into gold. By smashing lead atoms […]
Trade Negotiations aren’t Chess, Poker, or Go. They’re Bridge.
Trade negotiations are often mischaracterized as adversarial contests akin to warfare or chess. (The latter is increasingly invoked in varying degrees: 3d, 4d, and nth degree). Headlines speak of countries […]
Business Conditions Monthly March 2025
The AIER Business Conditions Monthly indicators reflected a noticeable downshift in US economic momentum in March 2025. The Leading Indicator fell from 54 in February to 42 in March — […]
Nixon to Now: How the Kitchen Debate Came Home
In July 1959, at the American National Exhibition in Moscow’s Sokolniki Park, Vice President Richard Nixon stepped into a model suburban kitchen and found himself in a now-famous impromptu exchange […]
