Peter C. Earle
AIER’s Everyday Price Index Sees Modest May 2025 Increase
AIER’s Everyday Price Index (EPI) posted a 0.18 percent rise in May 2025, reaching 294.3. The index has now recorded six straight months of increases. Of the twenty-four components making […]
Taking Government Out of GDP, An Update
The latest Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) shows a net decrease from Q4 2024. This net decrease “primarily reflected an increase in […]
Physics Meets Finance: Theoretical Consequences of Man-Made Gold
In a remarkable feat of modern physics, scientists at the Large Hadron Collider have managed to recreate one of humanity’s oldest fantasies: turning lead into gold. By smashing lead atoms […]
Trade Negotiations aren’t Chess, Poker, or Go. They’re Bridge.
Trade negotiations are often mischaracterized as adversarial contests akin to warfare or chess. (The latter is increasingly invoked in varying degrees: 3d, 4d, and nth degree). Headlines speak of countries […]
Business Conditions Monthly March 2025
The AIER Business Conditions Monthly indicators reflected a noticeable downshift in US economic momentum in March 2025. The Leading Indicator fell from 54 in February to 42 in March — […]
Nixon to Now: How the Kitchen Debate Came Home
In July 1959, at the American National Exhibition in Moscow’s Sokolniki Park, Vice President Richard Nixon stepped into a model suburban kitchen and found himself in a now-famous impromptu exchange […]
AIER’s Everyday Price Index Continues to Rise in April 2025
The Everyday Price Index (EPI) rose to 293.8 in April 2025 on the heels of an 0.34 percent gain. This marks the fifth monthly increase in a row for AIER’s […]
Tariff Tension: Will US Shelves Be Empty By Late May?
After nearly a month under the Trump administration’s renewed tariff regime, signs of economic strain are beginning to surface across US supply chains, inventories, and consumer sentiment. The lag effect […]
Tariffs Instead of Taxes? A Back-of-Envelope Estimate
In an April 27 post on Truth Social, President Trump floated a politically ambitious idea: replacing federal income taxes — at least for Americans earning under $200,000 per year — […]
Why Home Prices Are Cratering in Florida
Florida’s housing market has moved decisively from scorching-hot to increasingly fragile. After experiencing some of the nation’s steepest home price appreciation during the Pandemic Housing Boom, Florida is now leading […]
